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Tuesday, 01/04/2011 10:25:43 AM

Tuesday, January 04, 2011 10:25:43 AM

Post# of 1222
Delinquencies May Be Down, But 4.3 Million Homes Are 90 Days Delinquent Or In Foreclosure
Dec. 31, 2010

LPS Applied Analytics released their November Mortgage Performance data. According to LPS:

* The average number of days delinquent for loans in foreclosure is a record 499 days
* Over 4.3 million loans are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure
* Delinquency rates are down across all products as more loans entered foreclosure and new delinquencies declined.
* Foreclosure inventory increases are being driven both by elevated levels of foreclosure starts as well as a very limited amount of foreclosure sale activity.

LPS Data November

Image: Calculated Risk

This graph provided by LPS Applied Analytics shows the percent delinquent, percent in foreclosure, and total non-current mortgages.

The percent in the foreclosure process is trending up because of the foreclosure moratoriums.

According to LPS, 9.02% of mortgages are delinquent (down from 9.29% in October), and another 4.08% are in the foreclosure process (up from 3.92% in October) for a total of 13.10%. It breaks down as:

* 2.61 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.
* 2.16 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
* 2.16 million loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 6.92 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure.

Note: I've seen some people include these 7 million delinquent loans as "shadow inventory". This is not correct because 1) some of these loans will cure, and 2) some of these homes are already listed for sale (so they are included in the visible inventory).

Two key numbers to watch in 2011 are:

* New delinquencies. With falling house prices, delinquencies could start to increase again.
* Foreclosures. With the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, foreclosure sales should increase - and the number of homes in the foreclosure process should decline. However REOs (Real Estate Owned) will increase unless the homes are sold.

invest at your own risk, based on your own due diligence, at your own risk tolerance

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