Sunday, January 02, 2011 8:11:50 AM
Case-Shiller: Welcome to the Housing Double Dip
The Fundamental Analyst
December 29, 2010
As I noted back in August, I thought we would ultimately tip back into year over year declines in the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the latest report from S&P for data through October shows that is the case. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, US home prices are down -0.8% from a year ago for the 20 city composite index. This represents the third straight month of declines and more importantly the rate of decline is increasing with the 20 city composite index dropping -1.3% in the October report, the biggest month on month decline since March 2009. The latest report, which is an average of August, September and October showed price declines for all 20 MSA’s.
In terms of levels, the 20 city index is now just 4.4% above the low set in April 2009. I don’t think it’s outrageous to suggest that we will see new lows early in 2011. 6 cities, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland and Seattle have already hit new lows since prices started falling in 2006/07. Talk of a housing double-dip is no longer necessary, we are in the midst of it. With Realty Trac predicting another record year for foreclosures in 2011 it’s difficult to envision anything but a difficult year for the US residential housing market.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/243954-case-shiller-welcome-to-the-housing-double-dip
The Fundamental Analyst
December 29, 2010
As I noted back in August, I thought we would ultimately tip back into year over year declines in the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the latest report from S&P for data through October shows that is the case. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, US home prices are down -0.8% from a year ago for the 20 city composite index. This represents the third straight month of declines and more importantly the rate of decline is increasing with the 20 city composite index dropping -1.3% in the October report, the biggest month on month decline since March 2009. The latest report, which is an average of August, September and October showed price declines for all 20 MSA’s.
In terms of levels, the 20 city index is now just 4.4% above the low set in April 2009. I don’t think it’s outrageous to suggest that we will see new lows early in 2011. 6 cities, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland and Seattle have already hit new lows since prices started falling in 2006/07. Talk of a housing double-dip is no longer necessary, we are in the midst of it. With Realty Trac predicting another record year for foreclosures in 2011 it’s difficult to envision anything but a difficult year for the US residential housing market.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/243954-case-shiller-welcome-to-the-housing-double-dip
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