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Post# of 94785
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chrich12

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chrich12

Re: derek2000 post# 65688

Friday, 12/31/2010 2:41:28 PM

Friday, December 31, 2010 2:41:28 PM

Post# of 94785
CELM: Here's my rough estimate. Capacity figures are based on correspondence with Dexter Fong. 

Revenues 
 - AC Motor Capacity 
    - 24M Existing 
    - 21.6M additional 
    - Average selling price of ~ $4 =  182.4M 
 - Coreless Motors 
    - 43.2M 
    - Average selling price of ~ $.36 = 15.5M 
 - Nigbo Bang Shi Da swag of 12M 
 - Total = 209.9M 
  
 Net Income 
 - Typically 14-16% of Revenues 
 - 14% = 29.4M, 16% = 33.6M 
  
 EPS 
 - Assume ~22M OS = $1.34 - $1.53 
 - Could be impacted by employee stock plan 
 - OS count could be a bit low 
 - Conservatively, I'm looking for about $1.15/share
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