In my opinion here is what you are seeing in regards to recent price action:
ANX submitted a NDA for 530 a year ago and in January PR'd they were shot down with a refuse to file letter from the FDA - with the sole reason being sited as "less than 12 months of stability data from the same manufacturer". In other words, they only had tested the drug to make sure it was still stable, made by the same plant, for 6 months and needed a minimum of 12 months - basically to make sure that the drug would remain stable for that long sitting in a doctor's fridge. Purely an administrative task - not really a "drug issue" per se. The stock took a huge hit.
Flash forward (passing the reverse split quickly as it was painful).
At this point the new NDA submitted has at least the minimum 12 months. Everyone assumes that since the FDA had no other issues last time, there is a good chance they will not reverse their position and therefore should accept this NDA for filing. (Which does NOT mean the drug is approved, it simply means that ANX filled out the application correctly - we will not get an approval/rejection for 10 months unless they get fast tracked that we are not yet aware of).
Most investors/traders believe that if the FDA news is good we should see, at bare minimum, a 50% pop - more likely a 100% pop. Most people that have followed this for some time believe, as I do, that ANX likely got it right this time and the FDA will accept the application. Based on the timeline put together from PR's, and knowing that the FDA will provide the answer within 60 days, and that the company must PR it within 3, we all expect an answer no later than next week but possibly sooner. In other words, there is a lot of anxiety here - especially with the group of people that have taken a big hit and are trying to see green. (Remember, if you bought a couple days before the RTF PR and held, you need something like $7.50 to break even).
Anytime a stock has news that everyone knows is coming, and most expect to be good, no one wants to miss the boat. The price climbs (this stock was stuck under $2 VERY recently...) and everyone has an itchy trigger finger. The recent run up over $3 was probably the result of a large retail (or possible institutional) buy and a few others thought to themselves "Oh, someone knows something...I'm jumping in!" and set an artificial spike in place. The last couple days have just been filling in that gap and settling back down. Compound this with day traders that know this action is to be expected and trade based on it.
I do not see the recent drop as in any way unexpected or anything to worry about. The simple fact is that we will get a PR within the next week and we will know if the FDA accepted or rejected the application. At that moment the price will either go up or down an amount that will make any recent fluctuations insignificant.
Best of luck to you
AI
