Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[Bxofscidad]

It appears that I may be in the minority, but I am now increasing the % I am assigning to a successful outcome of the Rida Phase 111 to 75% success vs 25% failure for the following reasons:


1- The exceptional science at Ariad

2- The Phase 11 numbers

3- Merck (both their confidence in the drug and their experience in getting drugs approved)

4- The action in the stock over the past few weeks:

a) Steadily rising price

b) Rising volume

c) Apparent accumulation


I was previously at 60%/40%


As usual this is JMHO

Barry