I totally disagree. Nevader wanted to wait until Pope's note has been redeemed and probably also to see the market's reaction to the recent news (addition of 14 bulk customers and major retail expansion into the pan-Beijing market) to come out with his latest piece. Which is a smart thing to do. (Btw, same compliment here goes to a savvy Mgmt who held back all the postive news flow until aftyer Pope's note redemption). Why keep cranking out one article after another with little insight and new info which is usually what you see from the impatient "pump-and-dump" crowd? You think a pump-and-dump guy would take all that time to do such meticulous research and even spend a whole week during the Investor Day to get to the bottom of things as Nevader did ?
It was clear that after Q2 subpar results (no bulk customer added, lower selling prices in both retail bulk, no upped guidance...) Nevader had to drastically revise his model. Such a process takes awfully much DD and time. His previous models were based on more optimistic expectations such as a swifter rampup of bulk production (2 years vs 3 years, earlier production start of Qingpu Phase 2, higher selling prices...) and thus resulted in much higher sales and eps results than the one he just published. I am really glad that Nevader took the time to carefully revise his projections to down-to-earth numbers that we all can use for the next 2 years. Great job, Jason.
Jason's reply to a similar inquiry on Yahoo:
I am back. I just wanted to see the convertible debt repaid first. I had a couple funds contact me asking not to publish until after the convertible debt was repaid. While it wasn't fun seeing the stock in the $11 range leading up to the debt repayment, it was worth it so as not to push the price over the $14.16 break-even. Now that this milestone is behind us, we have clear skies ahead!
