I was looking at the increase in insider sales at MNTA:
Yes, one director just sold $1.9 million worth of stock in the $14s. Maybe that director needed a few mil for a new house, or is moving off the board, or some such reason. But that does not garner a heck of a lot of confidence.
In regard to the other selling, automatic sales yes. However, I'd have to think by now that all the tax selling is over, and insiders are selling with the automatic program about as quickly as they can get around to it. That is a subjective response as I have not calculated it, but that is what it looks like at a glance.
There is potential for immediate upside if mCopaxone gets approval by the FDA. This will create an immediate share price rise, but then will be tempered by the lawsuit on Copaxone. A positive Markman ruling will also be positive for the shares. It should be tried in 2011, but appeals could last into 2012. A loss puts any mCopxone on the market in 2014/2015 and we don't know how big the Copaxone market will be at that time with the new orals coming on board (or at least oral). Still should be worth a few hundred million per year to MNTA even if Copaxone takes a dramatic hit by 2015.
It presently looks like M118 is not going to garner a partner, at least not with the type of terms MNTA was looking for. FoB program is probably the strongest in the industry, but that is still some time off, absent a very lucrative partnership arrangement that could be announced at any time.
All in all, insiders don't seem to swayed by this potential upside news. But it does exist.
Of course tLovenox, even if it is just be cheating and stealing MNTA IP is an immediate material detriment and clearly is what the market seems as the most likely near term catalyst.
Tinker
