Airedale/pmiles/anyone else trading eur/usd cyclically,
Been studying the euro for a while now and it does seem to adhere to the hurst cyclical model a little better than the stock indexes…
The following is what I’ve uncovered regarding the current cycle status. I’d love to get feedback, if you have any…
4-4.5 year cycle:
Last low: 1/28/2002 (seems to be the 9 and 18 year lows, too! Before that, the last 18 year low was probably 2/1985)
Cycle runs 50 months +-3
Next low is due 5/2006 (2/2006-8/2006)
We are now 37 months into this cycle. Time-wise, we are presently in a topping mode. However, since this was also the 9 and 18 year low, we could be even more right translated than we are now…
80 wk cycle:
Last low: 2/7/2005
Cycle runs 80 weeks +-5
Next low is due 8/21/2006 (7/24-9/18/2006)
We are 6 weeks into this cycle and hard up…
40 wk cycle:
Last low: 2/7/2005
Runs 40 weeks +-4
Next low 11/14/2005 (10/17-12/12/2005)
6 weeks in and hard up…
20 wk cycle:
Last low: 2/7/2005
Runs 20 weeks +-3
Next low 6/27/2005 (6/6-7/18/2005)
6 weeks in and hard up…
10 wk cycle:
Last low: 2/7/2005
Runs 55 days +-7
Next low 4/25/2005 (4/13-5/3/2205)
29 days in and topping time-wise, but with larger cycles so hard up, it may take a while…
5 wk cycle:
Last low: 2/7/2005
Runs 28 days +-5
Next low 3/17/2005 (to 3/23/2005)
29 days in and bottoming…
2.5 wk cycle:
Last low: 3/1/2005
Runs 14 days +-2
Next low 3/21/2005 (3/19-3/23/2005)
13 days in and bottoming…
AI
