Apple Inc (AAPL)

[BlueDjinn]

20-25% iPod-owner PC/Mac conversion rate???

OK, let's assume that 80% of all iPods are purchased by Windows users these days (big assumption?).

Let's also assume, say, 18 million iPod/miniPod sales this calendar year (?) and, say, another 8 million shufflePods (?).

Next, I'm gonna figure that their 20% conversion rate only applies to iPod/miniPod purchasers, for a variety of reasons--many shufflePods are going to current larger iPod owners as backups, etc.

Based on these numbers, 20-25% conversion would mean 2.9-3.6 million NEW Windows-to-Mac switchers out of 14.4 million Windows-using iPod buyers.

If they're including the shufflePod in that number, 20-25% would mean 4-5 million switchers over the next year.

Now, I'm as big a Mac advocate/geek as anyone here, but even I find these numbers staggeringly difficult to swallow.

(Feel free to substitute your own predictions for any or all of the above).