Primary, wind and Tarka:
You guys seem like the 3 other like minded serious about IRE investors here out of the who knows how many Ihubbers actually invested and digging into this situation. I've enjoyed reading your inputs and that said, I think we have a very big day ahead of us here tommorrow.
If the lower house does not ratify the EU bailout package we are in for some serious short term turmoil. If they do, and I expect this outcome because they really have no other choice despite the political outcries that come with swallowing the "dirty pill" - then I expect to see some modest gains, perhaps back to the 3 dollar level for now.
The real rub here, as far as I see it, is that the market in general still does not see the fundamental difference between IRE and the rest of the Irish zombie banks. I was vested in AIB nine months ago when it seemed like they, and IRE as well, might be getting their house in order but got out quick when it was becoming obvious that this was not the case. Sat on the sidelines and closely followed the situation until a few weeks ago when I decided to go long IRE. AIB is garbage now IMO.
Things will change when the general retail investor market figures out where their money should be when playing this out. IRE is still part of the general sector when it comes to market confidence. I hope that as the next few weeks pan out people will more and more come to realize that their investments should be in IRE and I also predict that AIB and the others will spin wheels from here. Of course I might be wrong in the short short term, but eventually people will realize the bottom line numbers and that IRE is the most solvent of the bunch, and also likely to remain private if they can raise enough of the 2.2B by the end of February which I think they will.
The almost 100% increase in institutional holdings over the last couple of months lead me to be believe that big money is looking favorably in their direction, and for the other guys, likely not. I don't think I'm alone in making this bet.
malc.
