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Saturday, December 11, 2010 1:48:54 PM
There was never much doubt that they could produce oil. Reliably continuously? I still do no think they are there, but they sound good on that front as well.
profitably? that... is the question. We are back to the basic question; can they produce oil at $10/barrel and sell for such a large margin and make money factoring in all of the other costs? We don't know that.
I can provide 2 reasons why i would not place bets at this time; they cannot plan worth beans, and they are out of money. Both of those are show-stoppers for me.
This matter of permitting is simply a matter of good planning and they have blown it. I believe that they could have permission to operate at this point while the paperwork on the permits is being finalized. It is a bit odd, but I have seen regulatory agencies like this bend over backwards for companies to get them operating and break what seems like unbreakable rules. At the end of the day they will be reasonable. if it is just a matter of process, they will expedite or allow operation under strict understandings.
I have consistently posted that the permitting is not a serious issue. The requirements should have been understood up-front and the permits built into the plan. The plan should have told the company what the Critical Path was and allowed them to focus on that. IMO this should have been a 4-5 month job, and that is all 3 processors. All JBI had to do was to make public some "on-stream" date that included all requirements including permits, and then stick to that date. Or at least a season ("the fall...")... LOL... Their emphasis on permitting is a distraction from reality.
But all of this has nothing to do with the basic issue of profitability. That remains to be seen.
And I do feel for investors who are relying on message boards for hope that some revenues will be generated soon. There is no official word from the company, no realistic dates, every deadline has been missed, and in the absence of said message boards postings, it will be another 2-4 months. At which time JBI will be out of funds....
GLTA
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