Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Joe Stocks]

jdaasoc- >>Computers are being sold in India while cutbacks occured in US.<<

Per capital income in India is $460. There is a good argument that most of the IT expenditures in India are for an infrastructure to take over American jobs. Here is a link to an article that addresses this subject quite well. The article points out that only 1.8 mil pc were sold in India in 2001. Very much worth the read. An excerpt below.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/xml/comp/articleshow?art_id=21202541

>>There are a number of areas that need attention, but the most pressing should be to address the continual neglect of the domestic software industry. The figures seem to bear that out as well. In 2000-2001, India’s total software production (including IT enabled services) was $8.4 billion. Out of this, exports accounted for $6.2 billion and domestic market for a mere $2.2 billion. A year later, while the total reached an estimated $10.2 billion, exports touched $7.6 billion, and the domestic industry sputtered to $2.6 billion.


Contrast this with China, the country we don’t often but should choose to compare our software skills with. China’s total software production in 2001 was $9.6 billion, of which, exports accounted for a mere $0.7 billion. Several would term this as a no-contest, because they tend to weigh success in software with exports performance alone. If that were the case, then yes, India is clearly ahead. But such an attitude is fraught with danger. No country can really be a leader in any field unless it has a strong and resilient industry supporting it domestically.<<<

An IT spending rebound in 18 months? Could be. However they have been predicting a rebound for the last two tears. Maybe there won't be one. What do we need one for. It spending surged when everyone needed to impliment it. Now it's mostly a replacement market. I own a little hardware store. Even the little guy like me has done as much IT spending as I can stand.

Something to keep in mind about the US - demographics. Everyday a few more people drop out of the work force as they retire and become unproductive. Up until about 2000-2001 we were adding productive folks to our population. This will weigh heavily on the average business being able to increase IT expenditures as they try to meet last year's budjects on decreasing sales.

I would be interested in your argument and support of an IT rebound being a reality within 18 months.

Joe