There is also the risk that when you pass up a slot machine in the casino, you would have won the jackpot...
I dont really consider missing an event-based stock run a risk. The aggregate losses I would take losing money in 20 stocks for every one that runs big, plus the profits I am missing by having my funds locked up and not trading, is way bigger than what I would make if a stock actualy ran hard. "having to chase" is not a risk. You dont HAVE to chase. You can just move on to analyzing other stocks with fresh potential and low risk.
As a final note, you dont have a guarantee of profits even if there IS a merger. As part of the merger, they might decide to start diluting right away, change the share structure, R/S, etc. and effectively cancel out the old shareholders of the shell. The new company doesnt neccessarily care about you. You didnt invest in THEIR company; you were a bottom-feeding gambler investing in a shell that they happened to merge into, which does not neccessarily mean that you instantly inherit the value of their company.
I am not an Investment Advisor and I cannot be held liable for your investment decisions. Everything I write is to be considered "in my opinion".
