Mostly: Classical

[lvlamb]

Ayeeeee!
Gone for another round:
Gold CoT LT
commercials are increasing their short positions (which is bullish) but still are in a downtrend from the peak of April (which is bearish: les interest of speculators in the market).

Short term: total OI shows the lack of interest, barely back to the mean uptrend, with an open interest close o the one of second half of 2003. The contract to watch for open interest is the June which will be the active one in a couple of weeks (first notice for April is March 31, most are rolled over while in the preceding week). June also is a widely termination for the London style of carry trades (sorta futures).

What has to be observed is the gain in open interest of the Junes.
If they peak as they did last year, this would mean that speculative money jumps in (fast money, as in fast-in, fast-out) and the metal could make it's high at the end of the month.
If, to the contrary, there is a a lesser rush in the contract, but a rollover in both Junes and Decembers (slow money) the metals prices could resume the ascent.
In any case, I wouldn't expect much in prices if an individual contract can't print 225K contracts and/or "commercials" to be less short than -125K contracts (1/3rd of total OI which should near 360K).
Roughly one contract responsible for 2/3rds of the total open interest.

Not seeing this happening on a short term as the games still seems to be the oil and gas. Rather expecting a September high in gold.
Broader market has to be hit first (sell in May?).