Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Joe Stocks]

Gottfried, I agree that this year is bad but I don't see the catalyst for the jump next year. Looking at the chart that you provided and the shipments for 1995-97, I'm not so sure if shipments are not going to head back down. Actually looking at the graph, this year looks somewhat normal historically taking out the "mania" period. I base much on my opinion that I see lower and slower consumer purchases next year.

With the SIA calling for 19.8% growth next year but a 8-10% compounded growth rate in the future, is it only me or does anyone else think that these folks speak with a forked tongue? Think we need to be careful that the semi-industry is not factoring in that same recovery that they saw last year. I the market prices this new projected growth rate is anyone's guess. In my opinion, I think that most of these semi's will be cheaper next year than they are now. That said, I will trade what I see.

Joe