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Re: bwana12 post# 1657

Wednesday, 11/24/2010 4:13:21 PM

Wednesday, November 24, 2010 4:13:21 PM

Post# of 1731
Thanks for the clarification.

As for the dividend, that would be huge for the preferred holders and insignificant to the company.


Let's take a look at earning potential, because $80mm a quarter in mark-to-market gains are not sustainable (I know- I've been saying this for the past 2 quarters but the 4th quarter will be a wake up as rates have increased). Under the best scenario from an income statement perspective, the run-off operations excluding the unrealized gains are break even.

The current yield on the investment portfolio is around 4.5% which covers a portion of the claims.

50% of the holdings are in fixed income securities that will most likely not go up in value any further (IG).

The other 50% is in RMBS with a "YTM" of 12% (assuming a certain CPR, default & severity). Strip out the income and you are looking at 8% growth.

I just cant see how the BV gets above $900mm. Please convince me otherwise. What am I missing?

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