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Re: joenatural post# 60269

Wednesday, 11/24/2010 10:04:03 AM

Wednesday, November 24, 2010 10:04:03 AM

Post# of 94785
TSTC: I am mad too but in all fairness this secondary is not going to affect 2010 eps much considering it closes on Nov 30, so will weigh only 1/3 on of Q4's fd which will be about 11.1M vs. 10.56 in Q3.

For the year the fd will be about 10.87M vs. 10.55M previouy. The diluted eps based on guidance net inc. of 22.9M will be $2.11 (vs. $2.17 previously), big deal. I personally think the 22.9M guidance NI is a joke to begin with. Anybody who follows this stock knows that Q4 will bring at least 65M rev (vs. 32.9M in Q4'09) and probably 17M+ net inc. So Net Inc for the year will be 29.5M+, divide it by 10.87M diluted fd, we get an eps of $2.7+ for 2010, still way ahead of that ridiculous $2.17 that they guided for. That's an eps growth of 127% yoy vs. 2009. But the 18% dilution (includidng the overallotment shares) will affect 2011 and beyond.

Now that my blood pressure has stabilized after todays' shock, I think this stock will be fine going forward. What is 18% if you were growing top and bottom line at 100%+ yoy before and probably not much less after dilution? Probaly good time to add here.

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