China BAK Battery, Inc. (CBAK)

[Ecomike]

Interesting undercurrents in the news, behind the news!

http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2010/11/6th-international-rare-earths-conference/

BASF’s Patrick Chang chose to speak specifically about FCC and mobile-emissions catalysts. La in FCC catalysts provides thermal stability and selectivity. REEs in mobile-emissions catalysts also increase thermal stability, thus assisting in dramatically improving emissions reductions. Gary presented two interesting scenarios, one assuming lithium-ion batteries replacing NiMH batteries in hybrids, the other a world in which NiMH continues to dominate. We believe the first scenario is a near certainty, but both results are interesting. If the first scenario holds, then La and Ce are both in plentiful supply through 2020, with magnet materials perhaps being in tight supply. But if NiMH batteries continue to dominate, then Ce supply is plentiful, but La, Nd and Pr are short in the longer term. A cautionary note to the industry was issued, which was that if REE supplies continue to be unstable, then substitution work will accelerate, and this substitution will, in turn, likely result in decreased demand, some REE projects being delayed and other green industries finding it more difficult to rely on new sources of REEs. Since Chinese industry depends on products made from REEs by Western countries, this situation does not benefit China, either.

Possible driving force to benefit CBAK battery sales into the hybrid makets?