I'll take a whack at this. A 1 x sales multiple would be pretty conservative, so at the low end of 2012 guidance ($80 million) you'd be looking at an $80 million market cap and $7/share. That'd be a pretty low market cap for a company doing almost a hundred million in sales though and if they're profitable and growing that fast then their valuation would have to be considerably higher. To take another company that CERP's IR firm represents, SmithMicro, they do about $100 million in annual revs and they have a market cap of $500 million or about 5xsales, a P/E of 60 and their net earnings are only growing at about a 15% annual rate. Apply those kind of multiples to CERP (obviously a different industry and I honestly don't know what the industry multiples are here) and you get a market cap of $400 million or about $33/share. How high CERP went would depend on what happens to their costs over the next year and a half, whether their sales guidance pans out, competitive pricing pressures, supplier reliability, dilution and on and on. A lot of unknowns but let's put it this way, if they're really doing $80 million in sales by mid-2012 I don't see how their share price isn't over $15.
I particularly like how nobody's following this company too. Very few posting on this or the yahoo board, only one analyst present on the CC, paltry daily volume and they're at $3 a share. If Fred clocks the numbers he's saying they'll turn in then this thing is going to heat up fast.
