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Tuesday, November 16, 2010 6:13:29 PM
OK lets say there is 700 million share issued,@ .0325 that puts the market cap at $22.750 million.
If we go with the post JV, pre drilling SP of .15 that puts the market cap at $105 million. (reasonable before squeeze SP)
NOW let assume conservatively 500 million NS shares. Post JV that would put the NS exposure at $75 Million.
Now for the fun part, assume 50% of the issued shares are held by Juan and FOJ (friends of Juan) and thus will not be traded post JV. that leaves 350 million shares avaiable for the NS to cover their exposed positions. If we make a radical assumtion that current shareholders will sell 1/4 of their holdings at JV announcement, that would be 87.5 million shares off their 500 million share exposure. Add the outsiders that now want a little piece of the mountain and you would think that we see the SP move north quickly.
Changing the NS number by dividing it in half to 250 million still leaves the NS exposure after JV announcement and 1/4 shareholder sale at 162.5 million shares or $24.375 Million. And as the price moves north of .15 this number grows to a point that they can't cover.
Even if the NS position is only 90 million, we should see some squeeze from the new money coming into the stock.
I think that the outside guess of NS squeeze is around .75 to $1.25 assuming the FOJ hold their shares till production, but there still is not enough to cover unless NS position is under 350 million and no new money comes into the play.
Just my guess. At .75 that puts the market cap of the mountain at 1 billion dollars. 50% of which is MDMN's.
All this is conjecture, we need the JV announcement first. It is still an all or nothing bet.
If your IN, Your IN.
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