Your logic of estimating revenues based the number of hogs bought from the mother company is supported by looking at Q3/Q4 2009. As you can see the bulk of hogs purchased fell in Q3 versus Q4 for 2010.
2009
Q1: 141,852
Q2: 135,354
Q3: 397,970
Q4: 124,824
However, I still am cautious about the explanation given - that hogs were in short supply. If this is true, then we might not be able to count on being able to get the full 384,511 hogs and Q4 revenues might be curtailed (although if everything goes well, Q4 could be a blowout). I would prefer to keep my estimate for Q4 to be on the conservative side - around $.25 eps. However, as Northern has said, this is still a deep value at these prices.
Even though the working capital per share continues to go up, I'll be continuing to watch the increase in AR. I know they are extending credit and their distribution channel should be good for it. But if you take all the various receivables together, the DSO has increased quite a bit and AR >120 days has increased.
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