Answer quickly...
How much is the dollar down in the last year?
scroll down for answer:
Nothing, its basically unchanged against it's competitor basket of currencies...
Fiat currencies that is.
The dollar is down 22% against gold.
About 2 weeks before vacation we opined that gold and silver were overbought [more specifically silver] and they plus the dollar were due for a reversal.
Both reversals happened on cue but were short lived with gold and silver gaining the loss back quickly and zooming to new highs and the dollar hitting a marginal new low.
That short term reversal was not enough to re set sentiment less bullish on the PMs and less bearish on the U.S.D.
In fact, new highs made sentiment even more ebullient towards gold but especially silver, and re-inforced excessive short term bearishness towards the U.S.D.
This week and especially today, Friday, saw a reversal of excessive enthusiasm [short term] on gold and silver and they were hit hard.
Futures stops got hit generating selling and triggering more stops, plus the latest rally was primarily short covering.
The U.S.D is close to multi week highs.
The U.S. stock market got excessively bullish short term after the big run from 104 to 122 spy with no meaningful corrections and is often the case, it reversed the opposite direction of the prevailing trend around WWW which was Wed. Some weakness is likely to continue until Op Expiration next Friday. [next week likely to be erratic and choppy but likely no net gain]
After that, there is a good chance the market will have a generally rising trend until after Thanksgiving.
China stocks are overall still in a bear market and if that assessment is excessively harsh...they are sure not in a bull market, although some of the larger cap names have done very well. The market has been more likely to see the glass half empty rather than half full when viewing the latest round of engs reports from China SC companies.
As mentioned previously....SSRI would be our pick if one can time the rough bottom of the correction in silver. SLW is our biggest holding and we will not sell it in here but it's become the momentum name for hot money traders of late. [and one of the very best performers of the bigger cap PM stocks this year having doubled], but we think SSRI is the better bet for new money.
[Do some research. You can buy silver at $2whatever per ounce...look into how many oz of silver SSRI has for every share you own which is priced not much different than an oz of silver.
The silver correction most likely has more to go so be a little patient.]
All IOHO of course,
Fabian
AI
