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Re: Headley Lamar post# 6783

Thursday, 11/11/2010 12:44:17 PM

Thursday, November 11, 2010 12:44:17 PM

Post# of 34471
Also, I've heard a lot of talk about Q4 like it is going to be some sort of let down. It is surpising to me how many people that have followed this company still don't understand that their sequential growth is very predictable. They are a recurring revenue model bases upon multi-year contracts. I would love to hear anyone's rationale as to why Q4 would be less than Q3?

Such a claim would have to assume that one of the following was true:

1) CCME will be reducing ad rates (management has actually indicated that they will continue to increas ad rates, by as much as 15%)

2) CCME has lost contracts between Q3 and Q4 (CCME has added several significant contracts since Q3 and has lost none)

3) There will be insufficient customers to utilize all of the ad time in Q4 (there has been no indication from management that there has been any difficulty finding customers to fill the ad slots. In fact, Q4 is historically strong. Further, macro trends point to consistently strong growth in ad spending)

4) There will be some significant expenses in Q4 driving down margin (again, no indication that this will be the case)

The fact is, as long as they are signing new contracts and not losing old ones, as well as increasing their ad rates and not decreasing them, the sequential growth will be significant and consistent - therefore it is very safe to assume that Q4 will be at least as profitable as Q3 unless there are considerable unforseen expenses incurred during the quarter. Am I missing something?

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