Biotech Values

[jq1234]

Two months ago, the FDA approved a new type of drug from Novartis called Gilenya to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis and delay the progression of physical disabilities. MS, of course, is hard to treat and since Gilenya is a once-daily pill, the betting is that Novartis has a blockbuster on its hands (back story). But how big?

A survey of 43 MS specialists by Leerink Swann finds that Gilenya may grab 13 percent of the US market within one year and 19 percent in two years. If this comes true, Gilenya’s market share by then would exceed all of the competition - Biogen’s Avonex with 18 percent market share; EMD Serono and Pfizer’s Rebif at 15 percent; Bayer’s Betaseron with 9 percent and Biogen’s Tysabri at 8 percent. Only Teva’s Copaxone would be a bigger seller, with 23 percent of the market.

Looked at another way, nearly all existing therapies are forecast to lose between 25 percent and 30 percent of their market share as docs prescribe Gilenya to both new and existing patients. More specifically, the docs surveyed expect to prescribe Gilenya to anywhere from 20 percent to 30 percent of newly relapsing patients in the next 12 to 24 months. Despite enthusiastic projections, Leerink Swann analyst Seamus Fernandez writes many of the docs “were cautious on Gilenya’s safety profile.” Gilenya was approved with a Risk Evaluation and Management Strategy, or REMS.

http://www.pharmalot.com/2010/11/the-novartis-ms-pill-will-grab-how-much-business/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Pharmalot+%28Pharmalot%29&utm_content=Twitter