Harvey doesn't know any more than you or I know.
There are firms out there who hire medical consultants (the doctors in the trial) to try and probe for "information". The doctors are BLINDED from the arms as well, so, they really have no factual knowledge on whether the drug is given, or the placebo. HOWEVER, analysts/hedge fund managements CAN, and have been known to PROBE for information by using such questions as: "How are the responses from the patients?" "In patients that seem to have a longer progression, what percentage of those patient have oral mucositis." "Are the patients that have digestive problems, or have oral mucositis the ones that seem to have more of a clinical benefit?" Analysts can probe with this type of questioning, and have done so in the past.
Generally, the smarter, more informed hedge funds and their investment teams who focus in biotech are the ones doing this.....
BTW...what's Harvey gonna say? "We have a low confidence in this trial after we spent $250 million developing the drug and diluting shareholders over the past 15 years, so, we don't think it will meet its endpoints"....? Of course, he's "optimistic".
