in case you can't assess the main CGS main board, I just posted this that explains some more about the guidance and confidence you mentioned. (seems like I'll be way late to work today, really need to go now).
CHBT: rev and income came in much below my expectation but that's my fault. I probably set too high expectations based on a linear ramp up of bulk production (b/w 15 tons in Q1 and 25 tons in Q4) and using the same selling prices as last Q. They did point out that H2 of their FY (which includes the end of the calendar year and the Chinese New Year in the spring) historically makes up about 60% of their annual total rev. and reaffirmed guidance for 50%+ increase of rev for the FY. That amounts to about 122m min expected for FY'11. So far Q1 and Q2 rev add up to 48.5m which is fairly exactly 40% of 122m, so that's in line with guidance. That what counts. They are also very confident in meeting that target as they are done with testing equipment, training new staff at Qingpu 1, and ready to crank up volume for the next 2 quarters. No new bulk customers wer added last Q compared to Q1 (total 37 customers) but they have added quite a few since then (over 40). They were however not willing to disclose the exact bulk tonnage sold in Q2 nor the ASP. Seems like they reduced bulk selling prices aggressively and also sold much more low-margin low-price animal feed additives which are highly diluted (10x to 100x) compared to other additives for human usage like for food, dairy and pharmaceuticals...
The fact that they did buy back shares of about $2.8M value (out of 20MM allocated funds) did add to their credibility. To me, the most important thing is probably the reaffirmed guidance of rev. north of 122M for the year on a slightly decreased O/S basis. Also they seem to proceed well on the Yangling project, with designs being finalized by Dec this year.
