Last week’s scenarios: The most bullish first scenario continues to work and was exceeded
What Did We Learn This Week? - Big week for the markets and the market performed really well (key technical hurdles cleared)
- Everything is coming up roses: good economic data and earnings, an easy Fed, gridlock in Washington, and on top of that plenty of skepticism and concern
- What is the best sentiment indicator of all? The market - performance anxiety trumps everything - disbelief remains and the good news wasn't "already priced in"
- Financials finally caught a bid, finally woke up from the dead & Dow Theory confirmations (* XLB has not overcome all time highs, just set new two-year highs which I said incorrectly in the presentation)
Things To Watch Next Week
- Market will be on the hunt for fresh catalysts (it will be important for M&A deals, good bonuses or other positives to surface)
- November has a strong positive seasonal bias BUT tends to chop around midmonth bookended with strong rallies (most risk for a correction will occur during options expiration)
- Respect the buy programs - another POMO on Monday - watch for the gap opens to continue and strong late day closes when the market is soft
Bulls need to see... - Russell to take out April highs - Russell to generate weekly ATR buy signal - S&P clear & hold above key Fibo level 1,230 - Number of stocks making new highs jump
Bears need to see... - Failed breakout - a 110% give back of last week's gains and then some taking out the 10/20
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