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Re: DewDiligence post# 3005

Friday, 10/29/2010 7:55:00 AM

Friday, October 29, 2010 7:55:00 AM

Post# of 80490
Thanks, Dew. In the second line sprycel and tasigna are generating just under a billion dollars. Approximately 50% of pts develop resistance so we are looking at initially a $500+ mm opportunity. In addition, I think it's likely that ponatinib will eventually be approved in a first-line setting for pts with the T315I mutation.

With sprycel and tasigna moving to first-line, I think ariad made the right decision in not partnering ponatinib at this time. While some on this board insist the company should partner now and start global head to head, multi-arm trials, I disagree. That kind of trial would likely require several thousand pts and could easily take 3 years or more, which is right about the time gleevec is coming off patent. As of today, I'd much rather own 100% of the 2nd line plus T315I opportunity than 50% of a first-line market that is only going to get more competitive.

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