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Re: alertmeipp post# 34528

Wednesday, 10/27/2010 6:13:01 PM

Wednesday, October 27, 2010 6:13:01 PM

Post# of 48497
FWIW I'm not expecting news by 11/1. When we get SA news, I expect it to be bad or weak. The trial design was weak, and the disastrous execution of the study (1.5 years overdue) will put the fear of god in potential partners.

SA is an extremely complicated condition. The focus here has been on the size of the market, and the money that can be made. If nothing else, corx's trial makes clear how hard it is to carry out a study in a population this heterogeneous, with all kinds of comorbidity. Good data will at best be hint-of-concept (how much can you read into 1 night's sleep?); a more robust trial would be daunting prospect even for a company with deep pockets. Because the pharma sector appears to be focused on short-term profits, I don't think corx will have an easy time finding a partner even if they get good data.

The only way that they can make money with SA is by targeting patients who use opioids chronically for pain management. This population has high SA rates, and is likely to be more clinically homogeneous (at least wrt the cause of their SA).

Finally, I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think the study will provide a positive result.

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