A Well Reasoned Post from the Yahoo Board...Who would have thaught?
In July of 2009 right after HGSI had its first big news the stock jumped from $3-$4 to $14. They immediately did a enormous public stock offering at a lower price from the previous close. All of the press releases were negative and the stock dropped back into the $13's. Less than one month later, the company announced more results and the stock jumped to $20 and from then on, it has been about $20.
You can go down the list and look at DNDN and others and see the same press releases of stock offerings before the stock really took off. HGSI has done public offerings since I got in the stock in 2006 and look at the yahoo message board posts so similar to ARIA message posts. Same bashers, same pumpers, same everything.
None of this means ARIA is going to take off, but when I got into ARIA in early 2009, the stock price was $1.50-$1.70 and today it is $3.70. Yet, everyone here keeps trying to bash because of what the stock was 10 years ago. I feel for every one of those who got in too early and now just spill venom or just feel cheated. Many of the shorts here are just telling lies in hopes the stock goes down.
Bottom line is this... ARIA's upside is way higher than the downside risk in my opinion and I am buying more. This new secondary offering was well timed, not poorly timed.
One more tidbit. In the years leading up to DNDN taking off, they did secondary offerings and they were also told by the DMC to go back and change the dosages. The stock dropped and everyone was bashing. ARIAD was told by the DMC to continue without making any changes to the dosages.
To me, ARIAD is on the verge of a major price increase - maybe $5-$6 by year end and maybe $10-$15 by May of 2011. Sometimes I wish it would have some negative news or less positive on RIDA because 534 may be a super drug from early indications. The fact that it has done more for people even with mutant forms of the disease when everything available today can't stop it is beyond significant.
People today taking Chemo and other "standard" treatments apparently had less side effects from the latest Merck/Ariad press release. Yet, the positive was the "standard" treatments were half as effective for survival.
We can sit and spin this 100 ways, but I think the people at Ariad and Merck and the timing of the latest news is very positive. One way to find out is to come back over the next several months and see the price action and daily volume and compare it to the previous months volume and price.
AI
