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Re: gaspump7 post# 24228

Wednesday, 10/20/2010 9:27:12 PM

Wednesday, October 20, 2010 9:27:12 PM

Post# of 41960
Here's the difference. BBY may do $50B in revenue, but their net is about 5% on that. Our net would be about 80% of our portion of finds - IF WIlf doesn't screw it up. (Yeah, I still have doubts. I've disclosed them before) And, BBY may move only 30% now, but when it was younger it moved much more than that.

And I"m not looking for it to go to that level anyway (thanks to the huge amount outstanding, as you said).

But

if they find 10MM in finds (their share) ... Not 100B like you said but only 10MM ... then the numbers still look pretty good to me. That's only 2,000 of those $5,000 coins that they are bringing up NOW, in an entire YEAR, and they are finding them at a rate of over 100 a day some days. 2,000 over 300 days working is finding only 6 a day. Can they bring up more than 12 a day (so their share is 6)? I think so. So, taking ONLY the coins, and no other finds, and nothing from the museum, and nothing from anything else, they can make $10MM in revenues in 2011. Then they net about $8MM. (Even Wilf should be able to keep it to about 2MM in expenses for next year) That means that given a PE of 25, the value of the stock would be at $200MM. Hey, we're talking realistic market cap value here. After all, BBY is at 16.82B in market cap, which is 13 times earnings. For a mature stock in a slow growth area, that is not bad, and I could see MUCH more than 25 as a PE on this one if it hit the streets. PLus I can see a LOT more than 10MM in finds in a year. I'm being CONSERVATIVE (but also trusting their word that they are finding these things. Which I DO at this point)

So, let's say we can get to $200MM in market cap. Take that by 1.5B shares outstanding (Probably get up towards 2B before we sell some items, but then Wilf will buy back "some" shares and drop us back to maybe 1.5B outstanding. WAYYYY too high, but let's use that as the number. That means the stock price is at $0.133 per share.

It is currently $0.006. That is a gain of 12.7 cents on 0.6 cents invested. About 2,100% on your money. See why it makes ense, even with the high float? smile

Am I Looking for that $1 per share party? No, but it IS possible if the market takes it too crazy! And I think we can find a LOT more than $10MM in finds for our portion. Even 50 coins a day with NOTHING else (at $5K a coin) is $250K, or $125K for our side. Take that times 7 days a week times 40 weeks and that is $35MM in revenues. More than triple the amount i used above, and realistic in finds. If we find "the cheese" then look out. We are going MUCH higher. NOt to 25 times PE, but maybe 100 times earnings on the hype and excitement in the market short term. BUt if not, and we find $35MM in finds for our side, then we can be about 50 cents per share on the market. If it is only $10MM in finds, we can be about 13 cents. All a LOT higher than now, and all TAKING into consideration the TERRIBLE thing that Wilf has done to us loyal shareholders by diluting us SOOO much in 2010. See my previous post on that? ALL the owners of ALL the stock outstanding as of 1/1/2010 now own only about 35% of the company. We've been diluted down to a THIRD of the comapny, and 2/3 of ALL the control is new people. Bought at these lower prices! BUt that's a different rant.

I still see that if we find some good things, and it seems like we ARE ALREADY on a DAILY basis, then we can hit a dime. Or 25 cents. Or even maybe 50 cents. And $10,000 invested at $0.006 now buys 1,666,666 shares. At just 25 cents it is worth $416,666 - minus $9.99 commission to sell it. wink

Worth the shot. I see major news breaking when they announce what they have. MAJOR news. Whether they will SURVIVE long term or not i don't know. But when that news hits - based on the CURRENT finds they are bringing up NOW according to Captain BIlly ... then I see a flurry of activity that will bring this stock to a dime. ANd future news might bring it to $.25. $10,000 to $416,666. If I'm wrong, and it only goes to $.133, like I showed in the beginning? then that is still $221,666 on the $10,000 invested today. I'll suffer through the disappointment. wink

Pick a number. Say it won't go "that high". Fine. Use math and formulas and PEs and look at the daily updates, and then make a deetermination. See what the numbers show YOU, even witht he outstanding where it is. But pick a number, based on revenue and profit and a high PE based onthe excitement from the news. I think you'll get excited. Granted, this is all based on what we hear, and i don't trust them 100%, but I think they are in the right spot at the right time, and not even Wilf can screw up the short term future of the stock. No matter what number you or I put in there, the share price should rise dramatically. NOt to where it COULD go, becasue Wilf short changed us (IMHO) by diluted the SNOT out of us THIS year, but still MUCH higher than it is now.

Does that make sense to you? See how i come up with those numbers? Again, plug in your own, but I see potential profit in this, on activity already happening. SO I'm buying. One note. I'm buying becasue this is what I think can and will probably happen to the stock. YOU do your own DD, and buy off your own numbers, after working them out mathimatically. Don't buy basd solely on MY thinking. I've been wrong before, and shall be again. So realize that even though I'm talking math and numbers, the reality is that 1) they still have to keep coming upwith the goods 2) WIlf can't screw it up 3) The market may take this to a PE of 100, or might pass on it. You never know. and 4) this is MY OPINION, based on my DD. Take it as opinion, and do your own DD. THIS WHOLE POST IS MY DD AND OPINION, INCLUDING MY THOUGHTS ON FUTURE POTENTIAL PRICE AND DPBE MANAGEMENT. AND IT TOO IS WORTH ABOUT $0.006, FOR WHAT ITS WORTH

Longer term Wilf still scares me, so I'll sell what I own at some point. But I Hope at a LOT higher price than this, on a percentage basis. smile

Later. Gotta go. I have Bible study tonight, and I Need to go eat. By the way, saying these BULLISH things about the stock makes my skin tingle a little. WHich is why I say to do your own DD. I'm buying based on what I think, after analysing the facts as I see them. BUt I know who runs the company, and that makes me worry as I am investing in it. ANd yes, that too needs to be taken into consideration. So I'm a bull, but I have a twitching trigger finger on this one. Just in case. KNow what i mean?

Now on to the news over the next few months, some great coins, and a HUGE rise based on being in the right spot at the right time with the right captain!