Zeev's Ideas

[Koikaze]

ZEEV, ROAD MAP - up to ZEEV:363125, 02/27/05

Wecus has a chart of Zeev's ROADMAP on the ZEEV'S ROADMAP CHARTED Board (#board-2299).

The ROADMAP chart is updated through February 18th, 2005

02/27: (363079) (*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
Zeev,which comes first,Naz 1750 or 2350? Hate to put you on the spot, so PM me if you'd like.Just curious on your take.

(Part 2)
I don't know, I doubt we have 2375 in the next six months, but the 750 called for by the nassacre scenario may b doubtful as well, wit the Sox starting to lead nicely here, we may not have that nassacre after all. Just trading range for few months in the 2000 to 2200, then depending on economic conditions, it may change either way.

(Part 3)
I think just delayed. March is normally a volatile month and known for turns. SPX/DOW look likely to set blowoff tops while NDX looks to break up to maybe 1590 being accelerated on short covering. I think a fast move up and a faster reversal is in store. Perhaps then the indicators will register the extremes your looking for. I don't think such a trading range can be supported by the fundamentals looking forward a few months. BWDIK?

(Part 4)
Could very well be that the nassacre is just delayed, but I am almost ready to defenestrate the nassacre scenario out of the window.

Few things to note. The economy i still in "goldilock" mode, with employment behaving relatively nicely, thus delaying any possible consumer retrenchment.

The semi equip BTB at .80 is mildly bullish, sure it can go lower, but the behavior of the sox in face of the recent low BTB indicates to me we are closer to a through in that sector than a top, note how KLAC reused to revisit the $40 area and instead launched to a new recent recovery. Since we never got a really deep decline in the BTB, we may not get a sharp advance there either. That reinforce a model that includes rather than a very sharp retrenchment modest advances and declines.

Last the failure to get any extreme readings (either excessive bullishness, or excessive bearishness) in sentiment indicators, point to a period of less volatility (see the anemic VIX/VXN charts, even during periods of big declines as we had the one day wonder last week).

So, if we do not get excess optimism on the next ramp (and that ramp takes the dow to recovery highs), I will defenestrate the Nassacre model out of the 10th floor window.

I am still at a "neutral" like exposure at 44% cash here.

(Part 5)
So in pure and simple Hungarian, this means that the 1750 scenario is most unlikely to happen anytime soon or never (g)??
(*END*)

1750 is not yet "off the table", as I said, I need to see how extreme the various sentiment indicators get to in the next ramp, if they do not get outlandish, then 1940, might be the low till the middle of the year, and even that, just on a spike. No better visibility at this time... Got to "live" with what the market offers and right now, the turnips do not have a clear map of where it is we are going. Clarity may or may not return, soon.