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Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:49:13 AM
Why? Will History Repeat Itself? Cautious on Baidu Ahead of Q3 Earnings
First, Baidu has reported Q3 earnings five times since its IPO. For four out of these five quarters, Baidu shares dropped on the next trading day following Q3 earnings releases (green columns in Chart 1), representing an 80% "losing percentage". In contrast, for 13 out of Baidu's total 21 quarterly reports, Baidu shares rose on the trading day following the releases, representing a 62% "winning percentage" (Chart 1). Historically, Q3 has been Baidu's worst quarter in terms of next-day performance (Table 1), with an average price change of -7.3% on the day following Q3 earnings releases.
First, Baidu has reported Q3 earnings five times since its IPO. For four out of these five quarters, Baidu shares dropped on the next trading day following Q3 earnings releases (green columns in Chart 1), representing an 80% "losing percentage". In contrast, for 13 out of Baidu's total 21 quarterly reports, Baidu shares rose on the trading day following the releases, representing a 62% "winning percentage" (Chart 1). Historically, Q3 has been Baidu's worst quarter in terms of next-day performance (Table 1), with an average price change of -7.3% on the day following Q3 earnings releases.
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