Rivet presentation, personal notes
- commercial client penetration not happening, currently at about 5% there, basically nothing happening there for the next "few quarters" (it seems there´s absolutely nothing specific on the horizon, which was very dissapointing to hear that after Ruiz gave a very different impression at the Q4 CC)
- overall ASP "slightly north" of $75
- server revenue accounts for about 10% of CPG revenue, ~7% marketshare
- "in the second quarter you will see dual-core Opteron"
- "maybe a little bit ahead of schedule for dual-core", client dual-core second half 2005
- Fab30 fully converted to 90nm production by June
- starting production at 300mm Fab36 at the end of this year, output early 2006, more than likely at 90nm to minimize transition risk, conversion to 65nm later, technology on plan, on
track [INTEL will keep time to market advantage there which I would peg at 9-12 months for volume availability, 2006 basically a repeat of 2004?]
- capacity for this year (combination of 130nm + 90nm) approaching 50M, compared to a little more than 30M shipped in 2004, depending on product mix (more server CPUs = less capacity, but higher gross margin parts), with Fab36, depending on die size etc., capacity approaching 100M (with Fab36 fully equipped @ 65nm + fully ramped)
- flash market very weak ("who are we kidding?"), supply/demand imbalance persists, high fixed costs, dropping prices, hard to get a return there
- environment in CPG is pretty good, typically seasonally weak quarter (- 5/6/7%), so far "what we´ve seen was better than that", or rather, "less weak", but no change to guidance: seeing a pretty good environment for microprocessor business at this point in time [keep in mind though that he was very bullish about CPG roughly a quarter ago and we all know how that turned out, I wonder if he learnt something from that]
- again comments about lack of success in the commercial client space, seems to dash any hopes there ("we" don´t really seem to know "what´s going on there", don´t quite understand the business)
- there were some fairly useless comments on Dell as well, but I simply can´t be bothered
- (anticipate that) IBM will extend Opteron line-up over time
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Bottom line for me was:
- big dissapointment about progress (or rather the total lack thereof) in the commercial client space, despite Ruiz´ earlier comments which suggested otherwise
- flash gloomy as expected, no real answers what the plan is
- no real answer how to combat INTEL´s 65nm client dual-core product advantages in 2006 (economics vs. AMD´s 90nm dual-core products), "that will clearly become a challenge as time goes on" , will try to keep the time gap to 65nm as small as possible
On the positive side, CPG going ok (I´m careful here because March is make-or-break month this quarter, as INTEL said), 90nm ramp seems on track , enough capacity in 2005 to allow market share growth (but demand was the problem at least last quarter), dual-core comments mirrored earlier ones from Ruiz.
Rivet´s mood seemed fairly neutral.
AI
