Intel Corp (INTC)

[Elmer Phud]

Spokeshave -

Either you have intimate knowledge of the costs associated with a product that is not yet even in production, or you do not understand what the word "speculating" means. I will go out on a limb and assume that you are neither prescient nor privy to Intel's cost structure that even the most informed analysts are not privy to. Therefore, it would seem impossible for you to have cost information on an unreleased product. I must then assume that you do not know what the word "speculating" means. The conclusion is inescapable. Is that a fair assumption?

No it's not, for several reasons but I'll just give you one. All we need to know is die size to do a pretty good job of estimating cost. The original poster excluded R&D in his estimate so I did the same. I also showed how his estimate of depreciation was not realistic.

Why don't you do what nobody else but me seems to be willing to do. Estimate product costs based on yields and wafer cost. What's the problem here? This isn't rocket science. An 8" wafer costs about $2000 or less and that pays for the people who do the processing. You can get a pretty good idea of yields if you know the die size.

http://www.icknowledge.com/misc_technology/die_calculator.xls

Use .25/cm2 as a good estimate of world class yields.

Add a couple of bucks for packaging and test.

Like I said, what's the problem here?

EP