Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[TetonBill]

Central bankers are engaged in a race to the bottom as they weaken their currencies in an effort to boost exports and stimulate their economies. In the U.S., where exports are a smaller portion of GDP than e.g. Japan or China, our central bank is busy as a beaver monetizing federal debt and pushing harder on the string (see http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCRESNS, or http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT). The effect will likely be significant inflation 18-24 months down the road (and like the years following World War II, the opportunity to pay off or re-fund federal debt with inflated dollars). Combined with a continuing weak economy and high unemployment, my guess is that we're headed into a decade of stagflation. It's just dreadful.

I'm short the S&P 500, long gold, and long just a few stocks, like ARIAD, with exciting stories.