Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[nagpost]

"So, ask yourself. The company has '534 which has essentially ALL the makings of a huge blockbuster. '113 in the pipe (promising). Yet, the stock is at $3.87 with a marketcap of around $400 million. Why? Why. Well, in my opinion, it's because Rida in SUCCEED is a 50/50 gamble. IMO, if the odds were, say, as high as 80% (as some here suggest), do you really think with all the great things this company has going for it, that it would be $3.87 this close to the final analysis. There is no big rush to own this, it seems, ahead of the final data - thee "iffy" data. The data, that, as I said before, is a 50/50 shot in the dark. (60/40, now, for me)"

But why is everybody playing the "I'll get in on a dip if the Rida results cause a pullback" strategy? (And if the odds were perceived to be 50/50, wouldn't that imply that there's not much expectation for Rida built into the stock price?)

I don't understand why investors looking at a blockbuster in 534 aren't buying in at this price. Who cares about a bump in the road caused by a another drug in the stable? Especially if you know everybody and his brother are waiting to buy on unfavorable Rida results - meaning any dip is going to be minimized by buyers getting in.