ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[sneak-attack]

kownski: Lets us look at some interesting scenarios. Lets start with the idea of a 4 block development plan. Lets assume $8 billion for development cost for each block or $32 billion in all.

Block 1: all players are in.
Block 2: 25.5% are out or heading out, leaving it up for grabs.
Block 3: 24.0% are out or heading out.
Block 4: 10.0% are out or heading out, assuming Conoil stays in.
So 59.5% of blocks 2,3 & 4 are up for grabs.

Lets us now assume that ERHE gets $10.00 a share or $7.23 billion for its combined interest in the 3 blocks or 51.5%. That would mean that the balance of the percentages left available would be worth $8.35 billion. This is a number IMO that is much to high considering the economics cost of this play and the length of time it takes to make it successful. Using the above buyout numbers for blocks 2,3 & 4, The blocks would have to have 6 billion barrels of recoverable gas, condensate and oil in all.

The other small players have nothing more to offer than the rights they have in the JDZ. SEO has the EEZ plus he may have some Political sway in Nigeria.

Whatever ERHE will get is anyone's guess, But if ERHE is to get the Lion share of SEO asking price, All the other small fish must be remove and the Info about drilling results must be kept under a tight lid until this is done. JMO

Sneak