Well, we know that the EEGC research, performed in 2008 by an EEGC consultant RPS Energy, is published on their website and frequently quoted in EEGC press releases.
We know that for all the domes, the mean value of oil, at $5/barrel (number chosed by Mr. Bendall to reflect the rate at which certain kinds of reserves trade in Australia; not sure if EEGC undiscovered reserves fit that model, but let's assume so) would be 3.3B, or $2.2B for Bellevue/Thunderbolt.
However, that assumes the reserves are actually found. We also know from RPS Energy's report that the likelihood of finding COMMERCIALIZABLE reserves is 2% (0.71% for Thunderbolt).
If one applies expected value, by applying the 2% to the $2.2, less a bit for Thunderbolt, we get $40M, or $.08 per share.
That number goes up, if one believes $5/bbl (Mr. Bendall's own number) is too low, and/or that the other domes can be drilled; it goes down for 'risk premium' and if one believes that additional dilution will be required to actually get a well drilled, and commercial oil extracted.
Net, dreams of $25/share ($10B plus valuation) do not make sense.
Or, do we think there is some secret study somewhere that EEGC has not published. If not, what would be the incentive not to publish? Would have been a great way to get more interest in the RO from cash customers, as opposed to those taking on mysterious debt. Or, if since the RO, raise PPS so company is negotiating JV terms from a position of strength.
And the value of issuing affinity credit cards and distributing medical waste technology in West Africa does not make up the difference.
AI
