One Step Ahead

[Bo14172]

More DD on DNDN.

The only reason I keep bringing this stock up guys is not only what the vaccine can do, and not what the stock traded at last year, but this stock was traded over $10 last month!!!...and my opinion is this got taken down by a MISINTERPRETATION OF THE 1-11 PR fueled by a shorting effort!

They were trading at $10.50 when they put out this 1-11-05 pr:
http://knobias.10kwizard.com/filing.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3192059&doc=1&total=&back=2&...

Those interested, read the pr before reading any more of this post.


At first blush, don't you get the impression that Study DD902A is no better than a placebo? I did. It seems like the market did too. And in 1 day, the market took the stock below 8 because of it.

But my first read of it was WRONG. And I contend, so was the market.

Let's look at the phrase that was confusing:

"An interim analysis of overall survival in the intent-to-treat patient population, the secondary endpoint of the D9902A study, indicated that both the survival rates and the median survival benefit compared to placebo are similar to the results observed in the final three-year survival analysis of the D9901 study reported in October 2004. The results from the D9901 study demonstrated a survival benefit in the overall intent-to-treat patient population."

Now this may seem clear because I have highlighed and we are reading it more closely, but can you see what this really says?
It is NOT D9902A and the placebo which compared the same, IT IS D9902A AND THE RESULTS IN FINAL THREE YEAR D9901 STUDY WHICH ARE THE SAME!!!

There was no dilution, nothing different, only this news and what I believe was a misinterpretation of what was actually very good news! There is no other way for me to explain this drastic drop. In fact I remember reading this pr last month, knowing nothing about the company and thinking "the test is the same as the placebo..so what". But reading this closer we can see that is certainly NOT the case at all.

Sorry to go on here about DNDN so much, but undertstanding that people have options expiring today to buy DNDN at $7.50 and immediately sell them at the market price, plus the 20% short position keeping scare pressure on these option holders, I simply believe once this clears, yesterday's news and a CORRECT INTERPRETATION of last month's news could yield nice returns over the rest of this month.