Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[Whosetosay]

Recent history suggests an uncoupling of biotechs from the major indices, with a higher beta to the upside.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EBTK+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^btk;range=2y;compare=^dji;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

My take...if a slide were to occur, and I think 9000 would be the very bottom of possibilities, highly unlikely, biotechs would drop with a somewhat lower beta to the downside, meaning they would decline a slower rate than they went up, vs. the indices. A great buying opportunity for all stocks would be presented.

However, while ARIA will travel a similar looking path as the BTK, it may be doing it 5 or 10 or more points higher than it is now. Over time it will uncouple almost completely from the downside of the BTK as it spirals up.

Once we crossed 10,000, it was a stock picker environment and ARIA is at the top of the list. Every news release de-risks the stock. This autumn, the impact of the expected new release contents grows more potent, intense. I expect spikes. Next year, even better, I reiterate that we will see revenue from 534. As revenues continue to grow, ARIA will break free of the gravitational pull of the the BTK.

As bw and I have said in the past, there may be no better place for one's money in this environment.