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Alias Born | 08/24/2010 |
Tuesday, September 21, 2010 2:44:37 PM
The board is back to counting the millions before we even know the deal. While I love to dream about the possibility, the truth is, we don't need the short term buying on the dream, and in fact it just set up the under-handed plans of the shorts by elevating expectations and time tables that no one can show me has an even or average chance of historically happening.
This is calculated play at a 500% return over an expected short period of time IMO. That puts the SP at five times the current price. Then there is a NSS variation that IMHO can be worth another couple of % points.
At .15 the value of the entity is $114 million before we have any proven drilling. If you believe in the mountain, that price is potentially 10 times below what the production value is. But no institutional investor is going to buy much with out the drilling and thus IMO we will not see the price go above a dollar until them.
The dividend play makes sense, but I do not anticipate enough cash avialable at the JV to even consider this.
I don't want to piss on anyones pipe dream but, the payoff is long term not short.
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