Just thinking out loud here after reading Bio's logical valuation post.
There is considerable uncertainty about the IPO price of Graffiti. Technically that price should be set based on the merits and qualities of Graff and it's assets/acquisitions, and the value that the banks put on that. However, I wonder if the Share Price of SDVI (which currently includes Graff + assets/acqu's) will play a role in setting the IPO. For example, comments about how SDVI is supposed to be around 10% of the value of Graffiti perhaps could be re-worded into wondering whether Graffiti will end up IPO'ing at 10x the value of SDVI (a very different result!). If that factors into it, then perhaps the low price of SDVI is still a concern to everyone even if they are converting all over to Graffiti. Obviously there are other differences, mainly the O/S going from 1.7B to somewhere in the 50M ballpark, a difference of about 34x, as well as the higher liquidity/availability of the DAX exchange compared to Pinks. So lets say SDVI's current price (0.0017) x 34 (Graffiti's difference in estimated O/S compared to SDVI's) = 0.0578, and x5 more to represent the uplist to DAX (which adds new investors/interest)
= $0.28/Graff share.
Not that great, but then again the current price is not indicative of it's value.
Let's change the current price of SDVI in this equation to 0.0025 as from Sept 13 - 16 (when we all THOUGHT the divided was coming due)we had this as an average, so likely is not far off from what we'll end up seeing at the October Deadline (I'd like to see higher, but we didn't the first time so why would I expect it to be different the 2nd deadline?). $0.0025 x 34 (O/S difference) = .085 with the 50M Graffiti shares, then x5 for DAX premium = $0.425/Graff share. That's the highest I'm getting with this math, without addtnl fctrs.
Other factors that could raise it: Additional acquisitions (whether $300M or otherwise) could bring it close to that $1 - 2 euro amount that he mentioned as well as RR mania. Or the premium for the DAX could be greater (my x5 is an arbitrary measurement, designed to be too low rather than too high).
Lastly, if SDVI's market cap (I think Bio mentioned this earlier) is around $2.8M, then to be 10% of Graff's value we could predict Graff will IPO around $28 million. $28M/50M O/S = $0.56 at current value.
I don't think we'll IPO 1 euro+ unless we get more acquisitions, or a significant uplist premium. Luckily, $.50 Graffiti shares are still enough to make us money. As Bio showed, even 25% of a euro is enough to make the dividend worth while. Everyone should be buying by $.001, and wouldn't be too bad off to buy under .002 as well. I would borrow to the limit for that scenario, flip the dividend less than a month later and pocket the difference minus minor lending interest if it hits $.001.
Saredi
Note to newbs: Don't borrow for pink sheets investments if you can't afford to lose it all. That's a dumb idea.
