Intel Corp (INTC)

[Elmer Phud]

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1 CCN Conference Call Notes
Participants
Hector Ruiz – President, CEO, Director
Robert Rivet – CFO, SVP
Robert Herb – EVP, CSMO
Press Release
http://www.amd.com/us-en/Corporate/InvestorRelations/0,,51_306_643_7418,00.html
This press release is an official communication from the company and represents an integral part of the earnings release.
Please consult the press release in conjunction with the conference call notes.
Current Financial Situation
• In last few quarters, AMD has outlined a set of actions and activities that will position AMD
for success
• Although AMD remains confident about mid-term and long term prospects, not as confident
in short term global economic climate, particularly information technology sector
• As a result, AMD has accelerated efforts to more aggressively take control of future
• Well under way under with an aggressive three phase plan to get AMD back to financial
stability in short term while keeping poised for success going forward
• Phase I of plan which AMD has accelerated and expect to complete in the next 90 days is
intended to ensure sustainable economic health in current market
o Rebalancing channel inventories
o Bolstering capital structure
o Reducing breakeven point
o Will discuss each of these in more detail
• As mentioned in Q2, AMD began a process of bringing inventories in PC supply chain more
in line with current market demands
o AMD made a decision to accelerate this effort resulting in a sales adjustment of
over $100mm in Q3
o Predictability, this has had a significant negative effect on Q3 sales, margins, and
average selling prices
o Without this adjustment, AMD believes that Q3 sales would have been greater than
$600mm reported in Q2
• Second, while we ended the current quarter with over $900mm in the bank, we have taken
some important steps to immediately bolster capital position while reducing capital
spending and securing asset based loans
• Third, initiated the process of reducing breakeven point by more than $100mm per quarter
o Will realize a significant part of this expense savings starting in Q1 2003
o Full benefit realized in Q2 2003
• Phase I activity is well under way
• Confident that AMD has taken necessary steps to regain economic health in the short term
• Given current progress in these actions and reasonable assumptions in market trends AMD
believes within grasp to be operating at breakeven by Q2 2003
• Phase II of effort will carry on into H1 2003 will build on economic momentum of Phase I
o Represents more proactive and sustained approach to creating operational
flexibility coupled with strong new revenue opportunities
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
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2 CCN Conference Call Notes
• Believe future at AMD depends on strategies to create operational flexibility
• By definition, AMD capacity is to be much more responsive to both upturns and downturns
in markets AMD serves without sacrificing fundamental strategies for success
• This was the basis for innovative joint venture agreement with UMC (NYSE: UMC)
o It is the reason why AMD has so efficiently converted FAB 30 to 130nm and FAB
25 from Logic to High-end memory
• It is the principle that AMD is applying to expense management efforts discussed earlier
• Going forward, AMD is reengineering operating models
o To keep baseline costs down
o Invest only in areas that build sustainable competitive advantage or superior
customer experience
• In short, operational flexibility reflects commitment to elevate cost management from an
event to a strategy
• Plan on providing more details on strategy on creating operational flexibility in upcoming
quarterly sessions
• Meanwhile, AMD has a portfolio of initiatives in place to generate meaningful incremental
new revenue opportunities in H12003
• With MirrorBit, AMD has launched a new technology and product cycle into a new market
upturn in Flash business
• In H103, AMD’s China strategy formally kicks into gear
o Based on a recent hiring of new general manager and regional VP for China
o Relocation of regional headquarters to Shanghai
o Formation of joint venture with the China basic educational software company
• Move into servers and with next generation Hammer architecture will build upon on recent
success in commercial market
• Phase III of three phase program is centered around realization that going forward
conditions for success in semiconductor industry has changed
o To survive and thrive, semiconductor companies need to deliver new and better
value propositions to their customers and their customer’s customers
o Will save the specifics of this discussion for upcoming annual analyst meeting
briefing in early November
Q302 Financial Results
Income Statement
• Q3 2002 Sales were $508mm, down 15% from Q2
o Due primarily to significant actions taken in quarter to reduce inventory of AMD
microprocessors in the supply chain
o Without these actions, Q3 Sales would have been in excess of $600mm
• Operating loss in Q3 was ($315mm) vs. ($301mm) loss in Q2
o Relative small increase in operating loss given a $92mm sales decline
• AMD continues to make progress in reducing breakeven point which in now roughly
$875mm
• Net loss for Q3 was ($254mm), or ($0.74) per share
o Vs. Q2, was impacted by reduced tax credit of 22% compared with 40% in Q2
o The reduced tax credit was based on AMD’s global profitability dynamics leading to
a 18% point change in tax rate from Q2
o Making an apples-to-apples comparison, at 40% tax rate, Q3 EPS would have
been a ($0.57) loss for share or $0.17 improvement from reported results
• Microprocessor revenue was $262mm, a decline of 31% vs. $380mm in Q2
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
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3 CCN Conference Call Notes
o The decline due to action to taken to lower PC processor inventory in PC supply
chain
o In Q2, it was widely reported that AMD gave up 3 points of market share based on
microprocessor shipment into the channel

However, Dataquest, which monitors PC sales out of the channel, reported
that AMD Q2 share was up 1% to 19% y-on-y
• Down only 1% from prior quarter

Based on PC sales, AMD expects to see only minor share loss for Q3

In Q4, with most of the management issues behind, AMD expect these two
measures of market share to be more in line
• Revenue in memory product line was $189mm for Q3, up 8% from Q2
o Second consecutive quarter of sequential sales improvement
o Flash memory product sales improved in Q3 based on strength of high-end mobile
phone market, especially in Asia and Europe
o Consumers are buying featureless phones filled with high density, high
performance AMD Flash memory
o For Q4 in row, mid-shipments increased sequentially and reached new record level
in Q3
• Pro forma gross margin was 13% in quarter
o Affected by steep drop in sales, both in units and ASPs of PC processor
o This margin is clearly unacceptable
o But did improve 6.5% points vs. Q2
o Expense management was on track with plan
• R&D spending was $221mm for Q3, up 24% from Q2
o The majority of increase due to increased Hammer development wafers in Fab 30
• MG&A was on plan at $159mm for Q3, down slightly from prior quarter
Balance Sheet and Cash Flows
• EBITDA for Q3 was $140mm negative
• YTD EBITDA is $93mm negative
• Cash balances at end of Q3 was $891mm
o Includes receipt of $108mm in new financing
• CapEx were $196mm vs. $172mm in Q2
• YTD CapEx was $567mm
• Inventory was $420mm vs. $380mm in Q2
o Increase evenly split between Flash and microprocessor business
o The microprocessor portion of increase due to supply chain action taken during
quarter
o And buildup of both of AMD’s businesses in anticipation of increased sales in Q4
o Comfortable with current inventory levels
• Anticipate Q4 R&D expenses to be flat to down slightly vs. Q3
Details of Phase I Actions
• Took aggressive action during Q3 to bring better inventory alignment within PC supply
chain
o Refreshing products in inventory
o Swapping old product for new
o Not shipping product into channel
o These are the same type of actions taken in Q2, however, the magnitude of unit
reduction in Q3 was about 4x more significant than in Q2
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
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4 CCN Conference Call Notes
• AMD believes PC supply chain inventories are close to in balance and don’t anticipate
continuing actions at Q3 levels
• AMD has already started process of reducing operating expense structure by more than
$100mm per quarter
o Will realize a significant portion of these expense savings starting in Q1 2003
o With full benefits realized in Q2 2003
o For 2003, these actions are anticipated to reduce operating expenses by more
$350mm
o Will necessitate a restructuring charge in Q4
• Operating losses of the magnitude realized in Q2 and Q3 are unacceptable
• Actions taken and will be taken are expected to significantly improve operating model going
forward
• AMD expects to be operating at breakeven by Q2 2003
Other Actions
• In addition to planned expense reductions, AMD is taking other actions to improve capital
structure
o Want to remind that at end of Q3, AMD has almost $900mm in cash and $200mm
line of credit
• Have taken a number of steps to create in effect a capital insurance policy
o First, AMD reduced CapEx for 2002 to approximately $750mm from original plan of
$850mm
o In Q3, AMD negotiated an asset based finance debt instrument of $155mm using
Fab 25 as collateral
o To date, $108mm of this has been received and is included in Q3 financial
statements
o The balance will be secured during Q4
• Forecast for EBITDA for Q4 2002 will be breakeven excluding restructuring charge
• Transitioning to 2003, CapEx is expected to be significantly less than 2002 forecast
o Specific guidance for 2003 CapEx will be provided at November 7 analyst meeting
• EBITDA is forecasted to be at least $100mm positive starting in Q1 2003 and will continue
to improve as full effect of $350mm of costs reductions kick in
• Combination of reduced CapEx, lower breakeven point, and additional source of capital
gets AMD to be at a minimum, a cash flow neutral position and self-sustaining business
model by Q2 2003
• Therefore, with actions taken, AMD does not to further improve capital structure in 2003
o However, have capacity to raise additional capital if necessary
• AMD believes that these actions position company well toward self-sustaining business
model yet do not negatively affect product plan rollouts
• In summary, current market conditions prompted AMD to take additional strong actions to
o Better align microprocessor inventory in PC supply chain
o Reduce breakeven point by $100mm per quarter
o Reduce CapEx and bolster capital structure
o AMD believes these actions will result in immediate improvement in operating
performance
o Going forward, better conditions for economic health
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
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5 CCN Conference Call Notes
Summary
• AMD restates commitment to bringing AMD back to economic health
• Well underway in effort to accelerated combination of rebalancing channel inventory,
bolstering capital structure, and lowering breakeven point
• Inventory alignment efforts in PC supply chains in Q3 were several times that of Q2 and
masked AMD’s true progress in marketplace, especially in mobile
o AMD believes held unit market share in mobile and in servers where AMD
increased shipments by 17%
• Based on PC market seasonality and strong mid-shipment growth towards AMD’s Flash
memory business, AMD believes that Q4 revenues will be 20% higher than Q302
• AMD begins Q4 with approximately $900mm in cash
o Yet strengthen capital position by reducing CapEx in current year by an additional
$50mm
o Will significantly reduce capital plans in 2003
• In short, AMD is completely confident that they are completely capitalized for coming
calendar year
• AMD has set a target of reducing breakeven point by $100mm per quarter by Q2 2003
o Resulting in over $350mm in reduced operating expenses over the course of the
coming year
• Based on current progress on these actions and given reasonable assumptions of market
trends, AMD believes it is within AMD’s grasp to be operating at breakeven by Q2 2003
o Note that despite these actions, will in no way challenge commitment to core
strategic imperatives
• AMD continues to demonstrate manufacturing excellence
o Evidence by completion ahead of plan of 100% conversion to 130nm technology at
Fab 30
o Impressively, AMD’s yields at 130nm as a percentage are the same as at 180nm
o Resulting in significant die per wafer improvements
o AMD remains on target to start ramping Hammer wafer starts later this quarter
o Initial 90nm test wafers are looking very encouraging

The conversion of Fab 25 from logic to Flash has been flawless

Will play a key role in moving to 130nm in volume Flash production next
year
• To conclude, looking forward to elevating AMD to a new position of leadership based on a
powerful portfolio
o Hammer processors, MirrorBit Flash technology, and Alchemy connectivity
solutions
o Will make sure AMD is well equipped to achieve that profile in the market
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
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6 CCN Conference Call Notes
Q&A
Analyst: Wachovia Securities
Question: You had mentioned that the cost cutting efforts are not going to affect manufacturing
capacity. Could you also discuss the UMC (NYSE: UMC) arrangement and if there have been any
changes there?
Answer: To refresh memories, the UMC arrangement had 3 parts to it. One was a very near term
part which had to do with qualifying UMC as a source of supply of microprocessors on existing
assets. Second part was a joint development effort to look at evolving technology so the foundries
could support our efforts at 90nm and beyond. Third effort was a joint venture with 300nm facility in
2005 and beyond in Singapore. None of those things have changed at this moment. Still on target
to qualify UMC as a potential source of foundry wafers for next year. We’re moving forward.
Follow Up: You had commented that Q4, you’re looking at a 20% sequential increase. Could you
give us some idea how that is supported from a backlog perspective, what it would require in turns
relative to previous quarters?
Answer: The backlog in Q4, we have probably the strongest backlog going into quarter in both
Flash and processor business that we’ve had in 4-5 quarters. Our own impact on 130nm and 90nm,
on the logic side, we are already totally converted to 130nm in Fab 30. Obviously, we will continue
the migration to 90nm next year. On the memory side, the conversion of Fab 25 is also complete to
170nm and will continue migration to 130nm which begins late this year, early next year.
Analyst: Gerard Klauer Mattison
Question: Want to check inventory again. You said that it went up to 420, Flash and processor
about 50-50% increase. Is that needed for Q4 increase in sales? Do we look for that inventory level
to come down?
Answer: Yes, those inventories are required for our Q4 sales plan. I anticipate they will be slightly
less at end of Q4 than they are now. From a sales standpoint, we’re clearly focused on two areas.
We introduced the MirrorBit technology and obviously made great progress relative to market share
in the wireless or cellular phone business. If we act this year I think we are going to have the
highest margins we’ve ever had in cellular handset market. Clearly, the ramp in inventories support
that and MirrorBit activities. From MirrorBit perspective, we shipped 10,000’s of units out of here in
Q3 and expect the plan to ship around 1.0mm units in this quarter. A lot of that inventory is built
around that ramp. On the processor side, we’ve been somewhat delayed in getting the volumes we
want out of the 2400+ and above products. Entering Q4, again there, we have the ability to produce
more than 2.0mm units at 2400+ and above, more than I think the market can absorb. But much of
the inventory build is on getting that product ready, working process for that product for the
marketplace in Q4 and why we are projecting Q4 like we did.
Follow Up: We listened to the Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) call yesterday and they are more conservative
relative to the overall market. You guys obviously think that you are going to take market share if you
think you are going to increase your sales gains 20% sequentially. Is that a fair assumption?
Answer: While I believe it’s true. Let me modify it a little for you. Clearly, the market share question
is an interesting one. From PC sales out standpoint, if you look at the Dataquest numbers, we were
up y-over-y on most recent Q2 2002 data at 19% market share. That is down from our all time high
which was actually in Q102 at 19.7%, so less than a percentage point down. I think in Q302, while
shipments in are significant lower than we would like, and we would lose share on that measure. I
think that actually PC consumption rate on AMD based processors is likely to be up from Q2, and
don’t think we’ll lose any market share. If we did, it would be a modest amount. In Q4, you’ll see
shipments in and PC processor sales out more closely aligned. I believe in Q4, we have a
strengthened position relative to our offering with the 2400+ and above with availability of couple
million units that allows us to play in a broader segment of the market. The big question is, how
much market demand is there for those high performance PC’s. That’s not totally clear now and
that was my only hedge on where we’re headed.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
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7 CCN Conference Call Notes
Analyst: Merrill Lynch
Question: Looking at the inventory and then at the GM. You are looking for Q4 improvement but it
looks like you are making things at a higher rate than you’re selling them in Q3, so some of that
theoretical improvement in GM is already impounded in the current number, or am I missing
something?
Answer: No, you’re right. We built inventory in the quarter which is deferring cost.
Follow Up: So, can you help me understand that assuming if we get back to $600mm at the top
line in Q4, where we are with gross margin?
Answer: As you know, we don’t try to give granularity with gross margin since our numbers it could
swing wildly with just a couple million dollars in unit sales. We continue to make progress in
lowering breakeven point. We did from Q2 to Q3 and will from Q3 to Q4. We will also have a much
richer mix which will play into gross margins should go north.
Follow Up: You did say that your EBIT breakeven level was going to drop by $100mm during Q4?
Answer: Yes. It will improve to close to breakeven in Q4, excluding the special charge.
Analyst: Sanford Bernstein
Question: You said that your breakeven point was $875mm now and looking to lower to $775mm
in Q2. If you look at consensus, analysts have $618mm in revenue for Q2 so it looks like revenues
are 25% lower than your breakeven point. Where do you think the upside is coming from vs. the
consensus opinion of the average analyst in terms of revenue growth from here to Q2?
Answer: We have started almost a year ago to try to enhance our relationship with Fujitsu to
become a much stronger competitor in the market place and gain in areas where have not
participated as much before. That has worked well and going forward will get stronger. This allows
us to introduce technology faster, better, and have capacity in place to be a little more flexible. That
results in our more bullish outlook on Flash going forward beginning in this quarter. Even though we
increased the last two quarters sequentially, we expect that rate to go up significantly quite a bit
more in this quarter coming up. We are looking at that success in the marketplace with new
technologies and new products in areas where we have historically not been as strong, mainly
wireless. We’re strong in automotive and the content of Flash in automotive is going up dramatically
even though the unit sales may not be going up. We’re a key player to some of the leading edge
technology companies in the automotive electronics business.
Follow Up: Are you saying that Flash will grow more in Q4 than microprocessors?
Answer: No, that’s not what I said. I said, relative to Flash itself, where previously had single digit
growth, we’re going into Q4 expecting twice that rate. On the processor side of the business we
obviously are expecting to see growth from where we are in Q3. As we look in 2003, are
competitive position again continues to look pretty solid both in the desktop space and in the mobile
space we continue to do well. The server space offers an opportunity where we saw growth from
Q2 to Q3 even at the depressed levels we talked about. Again, going into Q4 with the introduction
of the Hammer next year gives us some opportunity to increase revenues on that side as well.
Clearly there is some opportunity to achieve breakeven and that is clearly our goal right now and
would require some top line growth.
Follow Up: So the $775mm is the correct benchmark for Q2 revenue if your assumption on
breakeven comes true?
Answer: No, the correct benchmark is that if those revenues are at $775mm, we will breakeven.
Follow Up: How much of an increase do you think you need on IT spending on PCs and
workstation next year in order to get to your internal view of 2003 revenues?
Answer: 2003 at this point and time doesn’t like its going to a hugely robust market. We do think
we have some opportunities there. We will save our comments on our overall 2003 outlook until
analyst conference on November 7 where we talk about 2003 market strategy.
Analyst: UBS Warburg
Question: Elaborate a little more on cost actions that are going to take place next year and how
that affects cash flow. You mentioned you were going to take CapEx down and some actions in the
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
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operating level. Does that imply that you will be CF positive in H2 2003 as you cross breakeven in
Q2 2003?
Answer: Yes. Most of the cost reduction activities will be cash based activities. So we will be taking
cash off the table in terms of CapEx and OpEx to lower breakeven point. We’re working down path
to have full realization of those efforts by Q2. We will actually positive EBITDA in Q2 and very
positive EBITDA in H2 2003. Therefore total positive CF also with our reduced CapEx. We are
trying to work ourselves into a self-funding model where we won’t have to go to the capital markets
unless we want to.
Follow Up: Can you elaborate which line items are going to be most impacted? You talked about
reducing the overall OpEx by $100mm by Q2. What was number for year? It was $300-something
and which line item this will really show up, whether SG&A, Cost of Sales, or R&D?
Answer: We are looking at all parts of our company. While I am not prepared to breakout which
pieces it’s coming from today, we are looking at all parts of the company. The only thing that
remains untouchable is our continued technology and product development that we achieve and
roadmap schedules. You will see cost reductions in all other parts of the company.
Follow Up: The total number for the year was?
Answer: $350mm.
Follow Up: So, $50mm in Q1 and $100mm per quarter for the last three quarters?
Answer: That’s close enough.
Analyst: SoundView Technology
Question: Could you talk about what the unit trends were last quarter and the assumptions on unit
and pricing are for next quarter to get to the 20% target?
Answer: Again, there is growth in both sides of our business. In the Flash business, the single
largest segment still driving growth is in the cell phone market. We are expecting a fairly robust Q4.
We saw growth in Flash in all geographies around world in Q3 except the Americas, which are still
widely impacted by networking infrastructure business which is awful and the migration offshore of
some of the outposting that’s being done in all segments of the business. In Q4, the Flash growth is
largely fueled ramp of the MirrorBit technology and market share gains in growth in cellular market
largely due to seasonal patterns. On the processor side, the biggest opportunity for growth is that
most of the inventory actions we’ve taken are behind us. We now get back to a mode of selling
contemporary product into a contemporary marketplace and actually being able to ramp our 2400+
and above into the marketplace. Again, we are not going to be limited by our ability to produce
product and put it into marketplace but by demand for high-end desktop space, in particular
processors. The mobile business will continue to growth and server looks pretty strong. Some of
the changes we’ve made in China and with Asian-go-to-market team we have some opportunities
to recapture some business we have not participated in to a great extent over last couple of
quarters. In Q4, still think PC shipments will be up, as you would expect with normal seasonality, at
low end of range, most of the experts estimate between 10-14%. What this means for CPU
shipments is that in Q4 will mean be up between 8-12%. For ASPs we seem to be on a pretty
stable and continuing pricing curve going into Q4.
Follow Up: Can you talk a little about the Hammer schedule and milestones and confidence levels
on keeping schedule?
Answer: Yesterday we announced at Microprocessor forum our first test results on a 2.0 GHz preproduction
silicon Hammer. The benchmarks were quite good. We got a SpecINT score of 1202
and SpecFP score of 1170. To put into comparison, that’s about 20% better than a Xeon running at
2.8 GHz. We clearly think we’re on track as the capability of what this product can deliver. For the
schedule, we are looking at mid-H1 2003. The initial shipments of product we are looking at the
server space. We think the server space gives us the best opportunity to break into the enterprise
class customer and will give us a clean kill. It by far will be the best server product available in the
market. As we look at TPC measurements and net benchmark measurements, in both cases we
are going to have a superior performance product at that time. We’re feeling pretty bullish about the
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
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product. The product is complex and we are on schedule for that mid-H1 2003 timeframe. We keep
driving toward that so initial shipments will be late Q1, early Q2.
Analyst: Credit Suisse First Boston
Question: Can you tell us how many new microprocessor units you actually shipped in Q3 and
what potential sales adjustment charge may be in Q4?
Answer: Not expecting any sales adjustment charge in Q4. Don’t want to get into specific units
shipped unless competitor wants to release those numbers. But will confirm our unit shipments
were depressed due to those actions. From a unit shipment into the channel, you will see decrease
in market share but don’t think it’s going to impact our relative position marketplace as measured by
PC that are shipped based on AMD processors. In other words, there was plenty of inventory out
there for PC shipments.
Follow Up: Is this going to be a new policy from AMD that you won’t be releasing MPU shipments
quarterly?
Answer: Yes, would like to get out of that discussion and will defer to industry analysts and their
measurements of what happens there.
Follow Up: You put some aggressive numbers or very specific numbers on your forecast for next
on breakpoint. What is your unit growth assumption for PCs in Q1 and Q2 to hit that breakpoint in
Q2 because you’ve given very specific information, you must have some estimate of what PC unit
growth will be in those two quarters?
Answer: Yes we do. We’re going to share some of our plans in market product and technology
perspective on November 7th.
Follow Up: Did you guys lose less money in Flash in Q3 than in Q2?
Answer: Yes.
Follow Up: What percentage of Flash shipped during quarter was MirrorBit?
Answer: Oh, very small percentage. We shipped only 10’s of thousands of units in quarter. This is
the first quarter of real production ramp. Our plan is for over 1.0mm units this quarter.
Analyst: Not Identified
Question: Can you go into the financing a bit and give numbers again? Who was the counterparty
and how is it going to work and what is the timeline? I have $108mm.
Answer: We had $108mm of assets financing we secured in Q3. The total plan were working
toward is $155mm in Q4. Would not discuss who counterparty is but typical people who do that
asset financing. They have a little more to do before end of quarter.
Follow Up: So if I take that out, that means that cash flow was about $300mm gross of that, right?
Answer: Correct, from 1.1 down to that.
Follow Up: For next quarter, what are you guys thinking for cash burn?
Answer: Well, EBITDA based on what we think sales are going to be and the actions we’re
planning on doing to be breakeven, EBITDA will be close to positive, close to breakeven excluding
a special charge leading to significant less cash burn on an ongoing basis.
Follow Up: How do you think that you will not have to tap capital markets in 2003 unless your
CapEx and business model going to completely change?
Answer: You have to play with through the numbers we just talked about. None of those expenses
we are cutting will delay Hammer.
Analyst: Wedbush Morgan Securities
Question: On the CapEx numbers, if it comes down to $750mm, I assume with your UMC
relationship on .13 for K7, that that number could be dramatically lower in 2003 vs. 2002 $750mm.
Did I get that correct?
Answer: That is exactly one of the motivations for doing UMC relationship. Should we need
additional volume beyond where we can internally produce, we can do that without any significant
capital outlay.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
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Follow Up: Could you help me with why there is this channel correction? From history there has
not been much of these things of that significant magnitude like in Q2 and Q3.
Answer: In Q1, we had a pretty bullish quarter and we were projecting Q2 and Q3 to be a lot better
than they turned out to be. Most of that was an error on my part but our customers were also telling
us some of the same things at that point in time. So if you look at our shipment rates and what
customers were holding in PCs finished, inventory of our processors, over the channels, the people
who supply those guys. We were clearly in a situation where in Q4 and Q1, CPU shipments far
outpaced PC sold in that timeframe. Fortunately what we had been projecting for Q2 and Q3, both
were well below expectations we had in Q1 of this year. At this time, on a normal course and you
see business picks up, you absorb that on a quarterly basis over several quarters on some kind of
run rate. We got into a position where we decided to clear the deck so as this market does recover,
we have the opportunity to make sure our customers and partners have the material required in the
contemporary market, the fastest material possible. So we took a much bigger and more decisive in
Q3 than we even planned at the beginning of Q3. Think it was the right thing to do and that we will
be in a better position as we go into Q4.
Analyst: CIBI World Markets
Question: There have been some reports that you are possibly negotiating with Fujitsu to
restructure FASL joint venture. Could you comment on that? And what kind of tax rate should we
be looking at for Q4, looks like it has been moving around in Q3?
Answer: We’ve had a relationship with Fujitsu for many years, 7 years, that has been incredibly
positive and healthy for both companies. But as markets change and things evolve there is a need
for that relationship to be modified to be more in line with what is needed going forward. Both
continue to do that on an ongoing basis. There is nothing unique about us exploring that. We
believe that the evolution of that relationship is getting healthier and stronger. That’s all we can say
on that right now. On the tax rate for Q4 will be around the same as today, around the 20-25%
range.
Analyst: E. Magnus Oppenheim & Company
Question: How much of your long term debt is related to Dresden? What happens if you don’t pay
the Dresden interest? Are you in violation of any covenants?
Answer: The total Dresden debt is $500mm currently outstanding. A portion of that is in the current
due window. Obviously, we plan to pay the interest. The interest is government subsidized with a
guarantee and so the interest is actually quite low on that. There is no violation of loan covenants or
near any violation. The loan that we have on the Dresdner of $500mm on a asset base of $2.0B, so
it’s quite a low debt to asset ratio.
Analyst: Prudential Securities
Question: On the Hammer, it seems that your strategy has changes a little bit in that you’re going
to address the server market first and foremost. Is there an issue with performance of chip or
attractiveness of the market? Are you going to focus first on the Opteron family rather than the
Athlon Hammer core?
Answer: The first product in market will actually be based on the SledgeHammer dye. We think the
biggest opportunity for this product is in the server space. With the SledgeHammer dye that is the
market you want to serve first. Also, putting Barton into our roadmap which starts to ship to Q1, we
believe the Athlon XP lineup based on the K7 core called Barton that we’re going to have a
competitive performance product in desktop and mobile space through most of 2003 with that
product. So will focus in getting the benefits of Hammer will be driven largely by the server space
and workstation space to some extent. Going through the year, we will get into the high
performance desktop space. It doesn’t become a player in the volume desktop until sometime in H2
2003.
Follow Up: So is this a change is strategy over the past quarter or so?
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
www.CCNsource.com • 212.931.6515
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11 CCN Conference Call Notes
Answer: There is a change in strategy in that we’re trying to broaden AMD’s presence in the
marketplace. Any performance leadership in the consumer desktop space is something we’ve been
in and out over time. The place where we’ve not been a significant player and where we’ve started
to make some progress even with the current Athlon XP product, is in the server space. The
opportunity is for us to leadership position in enterprise class product offering and to go to market.
So, yes there is a change is strategy in that we’ve put a lot more focus on it based on the prospects
going forward here.
Follow Up: Will you have design wins or announcements at end of this year or early next year
before this product is launched in March or April?
Answer: I do view that our intent would be to start shipping the product and then line up with some
launch partners relative to availability in marketplace. Don’t want to get into who, where, and when
but yes, that is the significant time.
Analyst: Investec
Question: I was wondering what the value of Q4 special charges would be for my model?
Answer: Not ready to talk about that at this time.
Follow Up: So, I should just assume breakeven EBITDA otherwise?
Answer: Yes.
Follow Up: Traditionally, you haven’t been in the cell phone market very strongly over the last year,
in the Flash market. Was wondering where percentage of your share in Flash in last quarter and
this quarter and what densities are shipping into there?
Answer: Yes, all the high densities products. 64 megs kind of products and above. I won’t get into
our relative share in our own business, although it’s a big percentage but not more than 50% of
total shipment. Our share from an absolute market standpoint, we exited last year at less than 10%
of the overall cellular market and this at 20%, so a substantial growth over last year.
Follow Up: And set-top boxes and automotive are the other 2 largest shares of your Flash
business?
Answer: If you look at our Flash business, we have really 4 segments. Cellular, which we’ve made
great progress in and now a larger share of our total business, automotive market which is the most
stable of our businesses, set-top box or consumer market which we see as relatively flat at this
time, we’re doing okay in it. Last, our largest segment last year and quickly became a much smaller
portion of our business is the networking infrastructure business which continues to be extremely
sluggish and is the worst of the 4 segments.
Follow Up: Can you talk a little bit about the clock speed and performance ceilings of Athlon over
the next couple of years and what you’re doing to extend this over the next couple of years?
Answer: Will take advantage of November 7th to present roadmap at that time. Will tell you this
quarter we will have in access of 2.0mm 2400+ and above products that are all over 2 GHz.
Follow Up: You won’t have to switch to another processor architecture within the next two years in
order to maintain competitive performance?
Answer: In the next two years, the answer is yes. We expect to have Hammer-based Athlon
products begin coming to market next year even in the desktop space and become a significant
part of our product offering in 2004.
Follow Up: Do you have any exposure to Intergraph’s (NASDAQ: INGR) patents that you are
aware of?
Answer: No, not that we’re aware of.
Analyst: Salomon Smith Barney
Question: You’d suggested that CPUs up 8-12% in Q4. Is that in general for the industry on
average or is that what you think your own CPU will rise?
Answer: That’s a general statement about what I think industry will see.
Follow Up: Hector had said that Flash will grow about double the rate in Q4 from Q3, so from 8%
to 16%, so plug in the numbers it looks like processors will have to grow on a dollar basis about
30%. Is there anything accounting process from Q3 vs. Q4, through a swap or some replacement
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Q3 2002 Earnings Conference Call
October 16, 2002
of lower ASPs for higher ASPs, that microprocessor revenues were a little understated in Q3 and a
little overstated in Q4 because of this inventory clearly issue?
Answer: On the microprocessor side, our ASP and unit shipments were absolutely impacted in Q3
so it is a negative overstatement of what happened. In Q4 there is no positive impact coming back,
we just get back into shipping products in the marketplace. So I do expect Q4 to be quite a bit
better coming from an overly depressed rate in Q3 as a result of the actions we took.
Follow Up: The product you are shipping in Q4, is that any zero cost basis product?
Answer: No.
Follow Up: Do you think your ASP on a normalized basis. I understand that they were depressed
on Q3, but on a normalized basis, are your ASP’s likely to grow a little in Q4 2002 as well as Q1
2003?
Answer: Again, I don’t want to count on 2003 yet. But as I look at our business and we’ve modeled
it on what we think our current plans for shipment for this quarter are, if you look at ASP growth
from Q2 to Q3, it is actually up for us. I think we have the same opportunity for Q3 to Q4. So it’s a
combination of more competitive lineup in my mind. Again, more of our shipments in mobile and
server space than they have been in the past, and we won’t have the factor of the inventory jump to
depress ASP in Q4.
Follow Up: Server as a percent of total and mobile as a percent of total, what would you estimate
in Q3 and Q4?
Answer: I won’t give you raw numbers but will say that it continued to grow. Looking at mobile
market Dataquest number, we’ve doubled our share from Q1 to Q2 from 6% to 12%. We believe
that with our unit shipments being relatively flat we didn’t lose any share, might have grown a little
bit of share. On the server side our shipments from Q2 to Q3 were up 17%. So pretty strong server
exposure although the server unit total is a relative small portion of raw numbers.
Follow Up: So, low single digits still?
Answer: Yes, from unit standpoint, yes.