Biotech Values

[Shengli]

Well you raise a good point about Roche-Vrus . When you consider that VRTX has a 7 Billion market cap and Vrus has less than 1 billion i think it has more potential to be acquired than VRTX.Although we know what they say about a bird almost in the hand.VRTX has much already baked into its price. I fancy many are thinking they will capture 70% of the DAA market in the first two years.That may be as much as 4 billion. Whats the other 3 billion in market cap for ? I think other more advanced DAAs can hit the market within a 2 to 3 year time period. Who says they get 70% of that early DAA market even if they are approved ? We have caught a glimpse of Merck's data.At AASLD we will see all the data.I don't believe MRK and VRTX are going to initiate any more pivotal studies until post approval its too risky. They need approval but approval is not etched in stone.One leading research hepatoligist thinks its likely the FDA asks for for safety data on the Rash and Anemia that each drug has shown.Nothing is absolute with the FDA. Another fly in the ointment is insurance coverage.One drug may show 10 or 15 % higher efficacy so the other company may low ball insurance companies.These are going to be very pricey medications.Nothing is assured. I still think VRUS has a good chance of getting bought out. I have no position . I know this board contains many VRTX bulls and my Cheese presented today may of the Swiss variety but i do present some potential logical pitfalls with the current value of VRTX. All of my Bio tech money is in MNTA in my opinion with the approval of Enox Mnta is much less dicey than your typical bio tech.Heck they are printing money at this split second .I did not notice a Friday Enox approval for Teva.For all one knows minus Bernstein it will transpire in short order ?