ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:357998, 02/13/05
02/09: (356108) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, seems maybe the time is ripe for a little pullback here. Are you looking for one and on the COMP, you still thinking 2040 max down? Thanks.
(*END*)
I still have clear sailing here, 2106/15 will be the next "test", it could run fast if CSCO's impact on tech is minimal. got to take a short snooze here.
02/09: (356369) (*COMMENT*)
ok- time for my contrarian post.. letsee if it works this time but :
Zeev- this market looks like SHIT... and getting worse as I type this message. I think people are going to throw in the towel here real soon and judging by the buying on all the dips there are a ton of folks who will try and squeeze out the exit if this house of card collapses..
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a 25/30 naz points retrenchment is quite normal, as long as 2040 holds, I think we are still OK.
02/09: (356454) (*COMMENT*)
Heavy selling into the close, not a good sign, we may see 2040 by tomorrow.
02/09: (356469) (*COMMENT*)
Pause on the march upward hopefully? I see we are nearing OEX again, will this put a premature top in before the nassacre?
(*END*)
It could be though put buying has intensified a tad, the EPC has not seen .70 for a little while here.
02/09: (356508) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev - end of Nassacre ...
Noted your roadmap to Nassacre beginning is approaching. when you refer to buying TBL when "we are close to the end of the Nassacre" ... is that a TBD date that will be derived later as your models evaluate the size, scale and progress of the Nassacre, or have you already tentatively published an approximate target timeframe?
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I have a target for a first bottom in the map, with a strong possibility that a second worse bttom will occur in the October time frame.
02/09: (356515) (*COMMENT*)
ZEEV: Agree about anticipating a double bottom -- UNLESS the news tomorrow or Friday scares the hell out of folks and they dump large. Know any news that is coming out in the next couple of days which could to instill such fear and give Ms. market reason to sell hard? Trade deficit? Employment? Bond sale? RANCH
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We have initial claims (these have been creeping up recently, so another creep could be used as an excuse), and trade balance, which we all know will be crappy, but if it comes under $60 B (last month huge trade deficit) could be construed as "positive" (sure even if it comes at $58 B, it is still much too much.)
02/09: (356546) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, you mentioned 2/16 as a retrench. Do you mean that from this last top into the 16th is the retrench and then up from there to the 23rd as your "last hurrah"? Just looking back at my Zeev notes!
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These windows are far from perfect, I doubt it will take that long since we are already pretty close.
02/10: (356856) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I don't think I can recall a time since I've been following you that you have taken so many losses over a 2-3 week period.
Could this be a sign that something is askew with the current map?
Curious to current cash position?
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Yup it could be a sign that the nmap is wrong. Let see how we fight the battle here in the 2040 area, it looks as if we may even try the 2012 after all. And while I was on the phone, OSTK got hit just under $50. And my cash is up to 42% with all these losses.
02/10: (357191) (*COMMENT*)
Maybe participants are looking for some place to hide. Wouldn't the Dow be the last to breakdown?
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We bounced quite nicely from 2040, so I am not too concerned, yet, about an imminent breakdown, though in few stocks like DRIV, SYNA, PLMO and others, it surely feels like the Nassacre is in full swing.... (g). I was much too slow getting out of these, a big mistake.
02/11: (357795) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, map looks like it's foutu.. Nu? 2040 looks about to be taken. Now what? Without the extreme highs is 1st leg og Nassacre tobe put off until April/May?
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Not yet foutu, is it, quite a nice reversal today, the question is can we take out 2112 next week, a big question. Put buying, not as heavy as yesterday, was respectable...
02/12: (357852) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, seems to be lots of talk about near the end of this run the NAZ will actually underperform the S&P, etc...do you buy this theory? Do you look for the Techs to underperform during this possible "final" cyclical bull run this next month or so (or however long this runs lasts)??
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I am not sure about it, the SMH is starting to look half decent, so the Naz could easily take out 2106/12, and if that happens we could have a fast run into the end of the month.
02/12: (357866) (*COMMENT*)
The performance of the SMH was a revelation yesterday, given the mediocre-at-best results posted recently by tech companies. It really had the feel of a damn-the-torpedoes push by Da Boyz, the kind that signals a significant move up...
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Agreed, and still within the major framework of the current model. Mind you, SNDK was not following with oomph the behavior of MRVL, though.
02/12: (357904) (*COMMENT*)
The post this replies to gave timing considerations. Current thoughts on last hurrah?
Another thought is not certain at all tax cuts will be made permanent, in fact I doubt it. That possible hit to liquidity along with a shrinking of the public sector if budget cuts pass will hurt the consumer going forward.
(*END*)
Looks as if 2/09 was a little premature, 2/10 and retest 2/11 seems (with the strong reversal) to have been "it", there is still a possibility of another minor weakness early Monday, but I doubt we get that "fine structure local low 2/16. Jim, has 2/16 as such a low, however. The strong rally yesterday did not cause major reduction in put buying either, so this run may have a little more to go.
