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New Wave of Polls Brings Bad News for Obama and the Democrats
8 hours ago

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/09/07/new-wave-of-polls-bring-bad-news-for-obama-and-the-democrats/?icid=main%7Cmain%7Cdl1%7Csec4_lnk1%7C169007

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Bruce Drake
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Subscribe :Bad news in the polls has become the norm for President Obama and congressional Democrats as the midterm elections draw near, and a batch of new surveys show Obama's approval rating at a low ebb, high negatives for his handling of the economy and a continued trend toward the Republicans in the fight for Congress.

Here's a look at the top findings of surveys by the Washington Post/ABC News, conducted Aug. 20-Sept. 2; the Wall Street Journal/NBC News, conducted Aug. 26-30; and, CNN/Opinion Research Corp., conducted Sept. 1-2. (Some of CNN's findings were released separately.)


Obama job approval
Post/ABC: Fifty-two percent disapprove of the job Obama is doing while 46 percent approve, his worst numbers in 17 polls dating back to Feb. 2009.

WSJ/NBC: Forty-nine percent disapprove while 45 percent approve, with 6 percent undecided, his worst showing in this poll dating back to December.

CNN: This is the outlier in the group: 50 percent approve compared to 49 percent who disapprove.

There was one other telling figure in the Post/ABC poll. Those surveyed were asked whether they thought Obama had brought needed change to Washington -- something that was a mantra in his campaign and a driving force in his election -- and 53 percent said he had not compared to 44 percent who believed he had.


Obama on the economy
Post/ABC: Fifty-seven percent disapprove of his handling of the economy while 41 percent approve. The number of those who said they "strongly" disapproved outnumbered all those who approved (44 percent compared to the 41 percent). Thirty-six percent say Obama's economic policies have had no effect, 33 percent believe they have made things worse and 30 percent say they have made things better. If the Republicans were to take control of Congress, 37 percent said it would have no effect on the state of the economy, 32 percent said it would make things better and 27 percent said it would make things worse.

WSJ/NBC: Fifty-six percent disapproved while 39 percent approved with 5 percent undecided, up from a 52-percent-to-44-percent margin of disapproval in the last poll. This was Obama's worst showing dating back to December. Forty-five percent believe the economy will stay the same in the next 12 months, while those surveyed were evenly divided at 26 percent each on whether it will get better or worse.

CNN: Fifty-nine percent disapprove while 40 percent approve, Obama's worst marks in this poll dating back to March 2009.


Referendum on Obama?
All three polls agree that most Americans don't see their vote in this year's congressional elections as one meant to express opposition to Obama.

The Post/ABC poll says 47 percent don't consider Obama a factor in their decision while 25 percent consider their vote a signal of support for him and 27 percent intend it as a vote of opposition to his policies. In the Journal/NBC poll, 41 percent said their vote was not a signal of opinions about Obama, while 29 percent said it was a message of opposition and 27 percent said it would be a message of support. CNN said 54 percent said their vote was not intended as a message about Obama, while 24 percent said it signaled opposition and 29 percent said it would be intended as support.

Looking at it another way, the Post/ABC poll asked -- regardless of which party the respondent planned to support -- whether it was better to have Republicans in charge of Congress as a check on Obama's policies or Democrats in charge to help support them. Fifty-five percent said it would be better to have the Republicans in charge for that reason while 39 percent sided with the Democrats.

When voters who preferred Republicans in the midterms were asked in the Journal/NBC survey the reason for their preference, 46 percent said theirs would be a positive vote for the GOP, 28 percent said it would be a protest against the performance of congressional Democrats and 12 percent said it would be a protest against Obama's policies, with the rest citing other factors. Sixty-four percent of all those surveyed believed it was better if Congress and White House were controlled by different parties.

Generic Congressional Ballot
Post/ABC: 53 percent of likely voters said they would back the Republican candidate for Congress compared to 40 percent who favored the Democrat. Among all registered voters, the Republican advantage is a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent. By one measure, that would mean Democrats have room for growth if they can turn their voters out at the polls, but nearly all surveys this year have shown Democrats to be much less enthusiastic about this year's elections than the Republicans.

WSJ/NBC: Among all adults, the public split at 43 percent each between the Republicans and Democrats. However, when the poll looked at those voters most likely to cast ballots, Republicans led by 49 percent to 40 percent. MSNBC's story on the poll said that among those expressing a high interest in voting, the GOP lead increases 18 points. If voters had the choice of an independent or third-party candidate in their races, 34 percent would support the Democrat, 32 percent would back the Republican and 25 percent would favor the independent, with 9 percent undecided.

CNN: Fifty-two percent of registered voters back the Republicans compared to 45 percent for the Democrats. In early August, the Republican advantage was 48 percent to 45 percent. Among all Americans, 49 percent support the Republicans and 45 percent back the Democrats