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Re: A deleted message

Saturday, 09/04/2010 12:16:25 PM

Saturday, September 04, 2010 12:16:25 PM

Post# of 111729

No pumping, no bashing, just good honest DD



Unfortunately a lot of people mistake "good honest DD" with complimenting each other on what a great investment they have made, and asking the company that they have invested in whether or not they are telling the truth or how well they are tracking their projected timelines.

Folks this is not DD, this is simply drinking the KoolAid IMHO. These would be the last things that I would call DD.

Let's take a hypothetical example of a company called XXXX on Pink Sheets. Let's assume that their business model is that they are going to start manufacturing widgets and produce them cheaper than ever before. Now the truth of the matter is that they have never actually made a widget, but have seen that several companies in the US and overseas are making a nice business out of selling widgets to the electronics industry. So they set up a business, sell shares and start telling the world that their widgets are not only the lowest cost but they are much more shiny than anybody elses. They set up a webcam to show the world just how shiny they are (but things keep going wrong with the webcam and with the widget maker - but trust me they will be reeeaalllyyy shiny when the make one).

Unfortunately IBM, Dell, Apple and others don't need any more widgets and don't put a premium on shiny widgets (because they are buried inside the computer anyway). No problem XXXX finds a friend from Indiana and sets up a multimillion dollar deal with a new start-up company XXXY in Arkansas. XXXY have never made a computer before, and don't have any money but once they have these shiny widgets everything will be OK and the stockprice will go through the roof before ever they sell a nice shiny new widget. So they build a little factory in the country to produce shiny widgets, hoping that in the meantime they will be able to actually make a shiny widget and test it. Even if their plant works it is so small that the capital cost per widget would make them totally uncompetitive, but the shareholders of XXXX and XXXY will be rejoicing as if no-one has ever made a widget before. The stock price will rocket, some smart people (the PnD's and especially the founders) will make tons of money off the longs who would be left with shares of no value and no widgets.

Again this all a totally hypothetical scenario just pointing out the dangers of being selective in your sources of DD.

So who do you go to for your DD in this hypothetical scenario? XXXX? XXXY? Fellow investors in either company? IMO I think not. You go to the internet, check out the competitors, market size, pricing, ask IBM, Dell,Apple why they don't want shinier widgets. Some of it might come over as bashing - but do you honestly expect with XXXX or XXXY or a fellow investor (hoping to get his investment back) to even hint that there might be something slightly less than perfect about the business model? IMO I think not. Listen to the pushers and listen to the bashers too - both COULD be valid - but look at the evidence behind their statements and then make your own judgement call. Don't blindly swallow the KoolAid. IMHO