Unique situation here, seems that our fate is in our own hands. We don't have an entity or majority holder to control the cvr price, only the individuals, many of whom certainly do not read this board. However, my calculations of the effect of the cvr price on adjusted ebitda, does still hold true. We just now don't have anyone but ourselves to bid up the price. And I don't know if we as individuals have the financial stamina to gut this out. After all it is as always, every man for himself.
I don't have the exact figures in front of me, but roughly, it goes something like this. With continued earnings in line with forcast, the ebitda will fall short of target by about $140 million. That's if there is no change in cvr price between now and expiration. It would take an increase of .86 price per share to make up that shortfall, or a price per share of about .95 pps at expiration. That would still get us no payout in june 2011. However, if the cvr were to reach just about $1.65 at expitation, the payout in june 2011 would be $1.75 per share. That is nothing to get excited about for sure. If though, the exiration pps of apcvz were to be $ 2.00, the payout in june 2011 would be $2.62 pps. That's more interesting. And IF by chance the cvr pps at expiration were to be $3.37, the payout would be the max. of $6.00 pps, well worth waiting 6 months for!
Keep in mind that something good could happen to earnings between now and then to even narrow that estimated shortfall, making it much closer to target. Those figures just given are as accurate as I can make them, someone else on this board may tweek them a bit if they want. Also, as always, the above is MY CALCULATIONS AS I SEE IT, all just my own opinion, do not buy on the basis of what I think, do you own research.
A footnote to this; Is it possible that some hedge fund is looking at these same figures and waiting to drive the price up at the end, buying all they can? If that were to happen, it would most likely be occuring late and fast IMO
Please note that accordingly, the final price per share does not have to reach $6.00 for the payout in june 2011 to be the max. of $6.00.
