it is a hugely inefficient price. either our board has it wrong BIG TIME or the market will send MNTA significantly higher (in the near future).
Or both. Remember Provenge from DNDN, hey, Tysabri from ELN. I remember VRTX crashing into the low teens on bogus news reports on telaprevir. If I remember correctly it involved quotes from an unnamed "intern" citing the virtues of boceprevir but how fearful he was of telaprevir and how it needed more testing, etc. It was blatantly false, yet, the price moved from $30 to $14. I got a quick double out of it. But the price move was so swift it was scary, to say the least. Yet no substance at all to it.
MNTA is a bit more ambiguous. The Teva threat is certainly real, the litigation is certainly real. The insider selling is certainly real (but expected). But all in all, run the numbers, let me know if the market is not divorcing reality from the share price. Happens all the time when there is complex news. Sometimes it is easier or harder to see through it to the truth, but sometimes the price falls far enough that it doesn't matter, even if the worse happens.
That appears to be the case now (except for the litigation issue that could prove catastrophic, but the risk is low). Teva is not catastrophic, although it will be a spoil sport if they somehow manage to get an identical approval by the FDA for a product that is not fully characterized, but nevertheless deemed good enough.
MNTA managementthinks it is unlikely (or not possible actually) for Teva to gain such approval without full characterization. From their press release immediately following MNTA's approval, we do know that Teva has still not fully characterized the drug, and is still holding to the same line it has for quite some time. But maybe they'll go beyond that and pull it off somehow, who knows. But the share price pretty much already reflects that.
Tinker
AI
